Competition will bring down banking spreads in Russia's crypto market: analysts' forecast
Russian banks entering the cryptocurrency operations market will face inevitable pressure on margins. At the initial stage, spreads will be noticeably higher than on classic crypto exchanges, but they are unlikely to maintain a markup of 5–7% or more amid growing competition. The key factor here will not be the bank's appetite for excess profits, but the real cost of liquidity and clients' willingness to pay for a regulated framework.
Why spreads will first surge and then decline
At the start, banks are forced to factor significant costs into the price: from the cost of attracting liquidity and hedging to expenses on new infrastructure and compliance procedures. In certain products, the markup can reach several basis points, making initial offerings expensive for the end consumer.
However, I see no long-term basis for maintaining spreads at the 5–7% level. As soon as several major players and other regulated participants enter the market, margins will begin to compress fairly quickly. The market, not the regulator, will determine the final price. The spread will be shaped by the global asset price, the cost of liquidity, hedging and infrastructure expenses, as well as the specific bank's margin.
The Central Bank of Russia, apparently, will focus on regulating access rules, participant composition, and infrastructure, rather than setting specific quotes. Therefore, the variation in markups between different banks could be significant — each will rely on its own risk model and client base.
Within a single bank, the spread will depend on the number of active product users, the volume of real client liquidity, and the cost of balance-sheet operations. Secondary factors will remain the expenses on legal structuring and infrastructure.
Who will win the battle for the client
Victory will go to those with a larger marketing budget and a greater willingness to take risks for dominance in the new economy. This applies not only to qualified investors but also to mass demand.
The more liquidity providers there are and the higher the competition among banks, the closer prices will be to market levels. This mechanism resembles the currency market rather than a product with an administratively set tariff. Today, the mass client is not ready to pay solely for the word "bank" — the stress level of the retail audience has been high since 2022, and users are willing to accept many scenarios except one: an unjustifiably inflated cost of service.
The picture is different for affluent clients. Large capital continues to move between countries, and with an average transaction of 3–5 million rubles, a person is willing to pay for speed, transparency, and the absence of problems. The question of whether such a client will prefer their own accountant or a Russian bank is, in my view, rhetorical.
My conclusion: the banking crypto service in Russia faces a rapid cooling of margins. The first players will be able to profit from the scarcity of supply, but within a year or two, spreads will approach exchange levels. The key competitive advantage will not be the license, but the speed and quality of the client experience.