Bank spreads on cryptocurrency in Russia: why high fees are temporary and what will drive their reduction
The Russian banking sector is gearing up to launch cryptocurrency operations, and the first steps on this path will be marked by inflated spreads. However, as my analysis of market dynamics shows, maintaining margins at 5–7% or higher in a truly competitive environment will not be possible. That benchmark is merely a temporary measure driven by launch costs, not a long-term trend.
Why fees will be high at first
At the initial stage, banks are forced to factor into the price for the client not so much ambitions for excess profits as objective costs: the cost of liquidity, compliance procedures, risk hedging, and building new infrastructure. In certain products, the markup could reach several basis points. This is a natural process of "testing" a new line of business when operational costs are not yet optimized.
The key factor that will determine the final price for the consumer is not the bank's desire to earn, but the cost of liquidity and the client's own willingness to pay for a regulated framework that differs from familiar fiat transfer channels. The regulator, in turn, will focus on access rules, participant composition, and infrastructure, rather than setting specific quotes. This means that markups may vary significantly across different banks.
Competition as the main catalyst for decline
I see no prerequisites for sustainably maintaining spreads of 5–7% or higher. As several banks and other regulated players enter the market, margins will begin to compress fairly quickly. The spread itself will be shaped by the market, not the regulator: it will emerge from the global price of the crypto asset, the cost of liquidity, hedging, infrastructure, and the specific bank's margin.
In this sense, the mechanism will resemble the currency market rather than a product with an administratively set tariff. The more liquidity providers there are and the sharper the competition among banks, the closer prices will be to market levels.
Client behavior is also telling. The mass consumer today is not willing to pay for the mere word "bank" — the level of stress among the retail audience has been high since 2022, and users are open to many scenarios except an unjustifiably high cost of service. But affluent clients are a completely different story. With an average transaction of 3–5 million rubles, a person is willing to pay for speed, transparency, and a hassle-free experience. The only question is who they will prefer: their own accountant or a Russian bank.
My conclusion: banks that can quickly scale their infrastructure and offer competitive spreads will gain a dominant position in the new economy. Those who try to hold onto high margins will quickly lose clients to more flexible players. The market itself will set the priorities, and in that equation, victory will go to those with larger marketing budgets and a greater willingness to take risks for market share.