Competition will bring down bank spreads on cryptocurrency in Russia: analyst's forecast
The Russian market for bank cryptocurrency operations is just beginning to take shape, and its first steps will be accompanied by inflated spreads. However, as my analysis of market dynamics shows, no player will be able to sustain a markup of 5–7% or higher in a competitive field. It is a matter of time and the number of participants.
The key factor determining the price for the client is not the bank's appetite, but the cost structure: the cost of liquidity, the client's own willingness to pay for a regulated framework, and the difference compared to familiar fiat transfer channels. At the start, banks will be forced to factor into the price the costs of compliance, hedging, and building new infrastructure. In certain products, the markup could reach several basis points, which will inevitably be reflected in the end consumer.
Why high spreads are a temporary phenomenon
I see no prerequisites for sustainably maintaining spreads at 5–7% or higher. As soon as several banks and other regulated players enter the market, margins will begin to compress fairly quickly. The market, not the regulator, will shape the final spread. It will be composed of the global price of the crypto asset, the cost of liquidity, hedging, infrastructure, and the specific bank's margin.
It is important to understand the role of the Central Bank: it will regulate access rules, the composition of participants, and infrastructure, but it will not set specific buy and sell quotes. Therefore, markups among different banks may vary significantly—this is natural for an emerging market.
Within a single bank, the spread will depend on the number of active product users, the volume of real user liquidity in the order book, and the cost of liquidity that the bank will have to hold on its balance sheets in significant amounts. Infrastructure and legal structure costs are secondary factors that will not determine pricing in the long term.
Who will win the race for the client
Victory will go to those with the larger marketing budget and a greater willingness to take risks for a dominant position in the new economy. This is not only about qualified investors. The more liquidity providers and competition among banks, the closer prices will be to market levels. This mechanism resembles the currency market, not a product with an administratively set tariff.
The mass client is currently not ready to pay for the word "bank" alone. This is linked to the level of stress among the retail audience since 2022: users are willing to accept many scenarios to meet their needs, except one—an unjustifiably high cost of service. The picture is entirely different for wealthy clients. Large capital continues to move between countries, and with an average transaction of 3–5 million rubles, a person is willing to pay for speed, transparency, and the absence of problems. Which will such a client prefer—their own accountant or a Russian bank? The question is rhetorical.
My conclusion: the bank cryptocurrency market in Russia is headed for a rapid cooling of margins. The first players will try to monetize the supply shortage, but within 12–18 months we will see spreads comparable to over-the-counter platforms. Those who are now building into their strategy not short-term superprofits, but a long-term fight for market share, will win.