Competition will bring down banking spreads on cryptocurrency in Russia: analysts' forecast
The Russian banking sector is preparing for a full-scale entry into the cryptocurrency operations market, and the first steps will be accompanied by inflated spreads. However, as my analysis of market mechanisms shows, no player will be able to maintain margins at 5–7% or higher under conditions of healthy competition. Pricing will be determined not so much by the bank's appetite for profit, but by the real cost of liquidity and the client's willingness to pay for a regulated framework.
Why starting spreads will be high
At the launch stage, banks will have to factor significant costs into the price: the cost of attracting liquidity, compliance procedures, risk hedging, and building new infrastructure. In certain products, the markup could reach several basis points. This is an inevitable stage of "testing" new processes, when operational expenses are not yet optimized.
Nevertheless, I do not see sustainable prerequisites for maintaining spreads at the 5–7% level. As several banks and other regulated participants enter the market, margins will begin to shrink rapidly. The market, not the regulator, will shape the final price. It will consist of the global cost of the crypto asset, liquidity costs, hedging and infrastructure costs, plus the margin of a specific bank.
The role of the regulator and internal factors
The Central Bank of Russia, apparently, will focus on access rules, the composition of participants, and infrastructure, rather than setting specific quotes. This means that markups across different banks may vary significantly. Within a single bank, the spread will depend on the number of active product users, the volume of real client liquidity, and the cost of liquidity on the balance sheet. Infrastructure and legal costs are secondary factors.
Who will win the battle for the client
Success will favor those with larger marketing budgets and a greater willingness to take risks to dominate the new economy. Today, the mass client is not ready to overpay simply for the word "bank"—the stress level of the retail audience since 2022 has been too high. Users are open to many scenarios, but not to unjustifiably high service costs.
The picture is different for affluent clients. Large capital continues to migrate between jurisdictions, and with an average transaction of 3–5 million rubles, a person is willing to pay for speed, transparency, and the absence of problems. Such a client will choose a bank rather than "gray" schemes—and here, those who can offer flawless service will gain the advantage.
My conclusion: the market for bank crypto operations in Russia will develop along the model of the currency market, not administratively set tariffs. Competition will inevitably compress spreads to market levels, and those who are already investing in infrastructure and client experience, rather than trying to extract excess profits at the start, will win.