Competition will bring down bank spreads on cryptocurrency in Russia: market forecast
The entry of Russian banks into the cryptocurrency operations market will inevitably change the rules of the game, but the first steps of participants will be cautious and expensive for clients. At the start, spreads will be noticeably higher than on classic crypto exchanges, but it will not be possible to maintain margins at 5–7% or more under real competition. The market itself will set priorities, and the price for the end consumer will be determined not by the appetites of financial organizations, but by the cost structure and the audience's willingness to pay for a regulated service.
Why starting spreads will be high but short-lived
At the initial stage, banks will have to factor into quotes the cost of liquidity, compliance, hedging, and building new infrastructure. These are objective costs that cannot be ignored. In certain products, the markup could reach several basis points, making services expensive for the retail segment. However, my analysis shows: sustainable spreads of 5–7% in a competitive market are an anomaly that will disappear as the market matures.
The key driver of the decline is the emergence of several major players and regulated participants. As soon as 3–5 banks enter the market, margins will begin to shrink at a rapid pace. The pricing mechanism will resemble the currency market rather than a product with an administratively set tariff. The regulator, in turn, will focus on access rules and the composition of participants, not on directive quotes. This means that the variation in markups between banks may be significant, but market dynamics will smooth out the imbalances.
Who will win the battle for the client
Within a single bank, the spread will depend on the number of active users, real client liquidity, and the cost of funding on the balance sheet. Infrastructure and the legal structure are secondary. Victory will go to those willing to invest in marketing and take risks to dominate the new economy. This is not only about qualified investors — the mass client is currently not ready to overpay for the word "bank."
Since 2022, the stress level of the retail audience has risen so much that the user is willing to accept many scenarios except one — an unjustifiably high cost of service. The picture is different for wealthy clients. Large capital continues to migrate between jurisdictions, and with an average ticket of 3–5 million rubles, a person is willing to pay for speed, transparency, and the absence of problems. The only question is who they will entrust their funds to — their own accountant or a Russian bank. The answer is obvious: a regulated framework with clear guarantees wins.
My conclusion: the market for bank crypto operations in Russia will see rapid price equalization. The first months will be a "gold mine" for early participants, but within a year, competition will compress spreads to levels comparable to traditional financial instruments. For clients, this is a positive signal: legal access to digital assets will become more affordable, and the quality of service will be higher.