Banking spreads on cryptocurrency in Russia: why high markups are doomed to disappear
The Russian market for bank cryptocurrency operations is on the verge of significant changes. The first participants in this segment will likely attempt to set spreads at 5–7% or higher, but they are unlikely to maintain such markups under conditions of healthy competition. Leading experts in transactional banking are convinced of this.
The key factor that will shape the final price for the client is not so much the bank's desire to earn, but rather the objective cost of liquidity, as well as the client's own willingness to pay for a regulated framework and the difference compared to familiar fiat transfer channels. At the outset, banks will have to factor into the price the costs of compliance, hedging, and building new infrastructure, which will inevitably lead to elevated spreads.
Why high spreads are a temporary phenomenon
However, a sustainable spread of 5–7% or more in a competitive market is an unlikely scenario. As soon as several banks and other regulated players enter the market, margins will begin to shrink rapidly. The market, not the regulator, will ultimately determine the fair price. It will be composed of the global price of the crypto asset, the cost of liquidity, hedging, infrastructure, and the specific bank's margin.
The Central Bank, for its part, will focus on regulating access rules, the composition of participants, and infrastructure, rather than setting specific quotes. This means that markups may vary significantly across different banks, especially at the initial stage.
Who will win the battle for the client
In the new reality, those with larger marketing budgets and a greater willingness to take risks for a dominant position will gain an advantage. As practice shows, the mass client is not willing to overpay just for the word "bank." The stress level of the retail audience has remained high since 2022, and users are open to many scenarios, but not to unjustifiably high service costs.
The situation is different for affluent clients. Large capital continues to actively move between jurisdictions, and with an average transaction size of 3–5 million rubles, the client is willing to pay for speed, transparency, and the absence of problems. Such a client will most likely choose a bank rather than their own accountant—the question here is rhetorical.
My view: The Russian bank cryptocurrency market will inevitably move toward a model resembling the currency market, where prices are determined by competition rather than administrative tariffs. Banks that recognize this early and build flexible pricing into their strategy will gain a significant competitive advantage. In the next 12–18 months, we will likely see spreads decline to levels comparable to traditional currency operations.