The U.S. State Department is forcing allies to choose sides in the AI race: dual membership will become impossible.
Washington is moving toward a policy of open ultimatums in its technological confrontation with Beijing. A document prepared by the State Department, sent to the 35 countries participating in the June Pax Silica declaration, contains a stark warning: any attempt to simultaneously participate in competing AI initiatives automatically closes access to the American technological coalition. This is no longer a diplomatic hint, but a direct demand for loyalty.
The architecture of Pax Silica and Beijing's response
The Pax Silica coalition, presented in December 2025 by Deputy Secretary of State Jacob Helberg, is positioned as a comprehensive cross-sectoral alliance. Its foundation is critical minerals, energy, advanced manufacturing, semiconductors, and, of course, AI infrastructure. At the June summit in Washington, 24 states signed the declaration, including Japan, Australia, South Korea, the UK, Israel, India, the UAE, and the European Union. In August, Italy joined them.
However, China did not stand aside. On July 16, the launch of the World AI Cooperation Organization (WAICO) was formalized in Shanghai, uniting 29 countries—from Russia and Belarus to Brazil, Pakistan, Indonesia, and a number of African states. Notably, no G7 country joined this structure, underscoring a clear division of the world into two technological poles.
The essence of the ultimatum
The text of the letter, which came into the possession of journalists, contains a key phrase: "To be part of everything means to be part of nothing. Signing the Pax Silica Declaration is not a formality, but a commitment." The document's authors urge partners to "make a conscious choice," directly emphasizing the incompatibility of Pax Silica membership with participation in projects whose goals contradict American interests. Although Beijing is not explicitly mentioned in the text, a source in the US government confirmed that the Chinese initiative is indeed what is meant.
Kazakhstan on the fault line
The most telling case is Kazakhstan—the only known country to formally fall into both coalitions. In June, Astana joined Pax Silica, and Helberg personally noted its rare earth metal reserves and trans-Caspian transit potential. At the same time, the creation of an economic security zone in the republic was announced. However, just a month later, President Tokayev participated in the Shanghai conference where WAICO was formalized. It is precisely this "double game" that has raised alarm in Washington.
Against the backdrop of this confrontation, the technologies themselves are rapidly evolving: Chinese open-weight models are closing the gap with the proprietary systems of OpenAI and Anthropic, and Beijing is increasingly considering restricting foreign access to its best developments. In July, the US FCC already banned the import of Chinese robots and power inverters, citing the protection of supply chains for the AI industry.
My analysis: This move by Washington is an acknowledgment that technological leadership can no longer rely solely on market mechanisms. The ultimatum to choose a side effectively legitimizes bloc thinking in the AI sphere, which will accelerate the fragmentation of the global technological ecosystem. For neutral players, such as Kazakhstan, this means the need to make a final choice that will determine their economic future for decades to come.