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The geopolitical rift in the field of artificial intelligence is reaching a new level. Washington has sent official notifications to 35 states that signed the Joint Statement on AI Capabilities in June, with an extremely clear signal: participation in alternative alliances automatically closes the doors to the Pax Silica coalition. This is about the formation of a rigid bipolar architecture in the technological race, where neutrality is no longer an option.

The Pax Silica initiative, presented in December 2025 by U.S. Deputy Secretary of State for Economic Affairs Jacob Helberg, is positioned as a cross-sectoral alliance. It covers not only AI infrastructure but also critical raw materials, energy, advanced manufacturing, and the semiconductor industry. Following the June summit in Washington, 24 states signed the declaration, including Japan, Australia, South Korea, the United Kingdom, Israel, India, the UAE, and the European Union. In August, Italy joined them.

Beijing did not stand aside and formed its own pole of power. On July 16, 29 countries signed an agreement to launch the World AI Cooperation Organization (WAICO) with headquarters in Shanghai, including Russia, Belarus, Serbia, Brazil, Pakistan, Indonesia, and about ten African states. Notably, not a single G7 country joined this structure.

"Being part of everything means being part of nothing. A signature under the Pax Silica Declaration is not a formality but a commitment," the text of the document states.

The authors of the letter urge partners to "make an informed choice," emphasizing that membership in Pax Silica is incompatible with participation in projects whose goals contradict American interests. Although Beijing is not directly mentioned in the draft, the context leaves no doubt: it refers specifically to the Chinese initiative.

Washington is particularly concerned about the position of Kazakhstan—the only known country that has ended up in both coalitions. Astana joined Pax Silica in June, and Helberg at the time specifically highlighted the republic's rare earth metal reserves, trans-Caspian transit potential, and its course toward economic modernization. However, a month later, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev participated in the Shanghai conference where WAICO was formalized. It is precisely this "double game" that has caused alarm in Washington.

The situation is exacerbated by rapid technological progress: Chinese open-weight models are increasingly closing the gap with the proprietary systems of OpenAI and Anthropic. At the same time, Beijing is increasingly considering restricting access to its best developments outside the country. In July, the U.S. Federal Communications Commission already banned the import of new Chinese robots and power inverters, citing the protection of supply chains for the AI industry.

My analysis: This is not just a diplomatic démarche but an attempt to cement a new reality—the AI world is finally splitting into two camps. The only question is how many countries will be able to maintain maneuverability between the blocs, as Kazakhstan is trying to do, and at what cost. For investors and developers, this is a signal: technological neutrality is becoming an increasingly risky strategy.