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The U.S.-China technological confrontation is entering a new phase: the U.S. State Department has prepared a notification for 35 countries that signed the Joint Statement on AI Capabilities in June. The essence of the message is extremely tough — any attempt to participate in competing projects automatically closes the doors to the Pax Silica coalition. I have obtained a draft of the document, revealing the details of this diplomatic game.

Pax Silica, presented in December 2025 by Deputy Secretary of State for Economic Affairs Jacob Helberg, is not just a declaration of intent but a full-fledged cross-industry alliance. It covers critical raw materials, energy, advanced manufacturing, the semiconductor industry, and AI infrastructure. Following the June summit in Washington, 24 states joined it, including Japan, Australia, South Korea, the UK, Israel, India, the UAE, and the European Union. In August, Italy was added to the list.

Beijing did not stand aside and created a mirror structure — the World AI Cooperation Organization (WAICO) with headquarters in Shanghai. The agreement to launch it was signed on July 16 by 29 countries, including Russia, Belarus, Serbia, Brazil, Pakistan, Indonesia, and about ten African states. Notably, no G7 country joined this initiative.

"Being part of everything means being part of nothing. The signature under the Pax Silica Declaration is not a formality but a commitment," the text of the letter states.

The authors of the document urge partners to "make an informed choice," emphasizing that membership in Pax Silica is incompatible with participation in projects that contradict U.S. interests. Beijing is not directly mentioned, but the context is obvious. The timing of the letter's dispatch and the possibility of its final revision remain unknown — journalists only have an undated draft at their disposal. The State Department refused to comment on the leak, while the Chinese Embassy in Washington stated that politicizing technological issues is unacceptable.

Kazakhstan between two fires

The most interesting case is Kazakhstan, the only country that finds itself in both coalitions. The republic joined Pax Silica in June, and Helberg specifically noted its rare earth metal reserves and trans-Caspian transit potential. At the same time, the parties announced the creation of an economic security zone. However, a month later, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev participated in the Shanghai conference where WAICO was formalized. It is this "double game" that has caused alarm in Washington.

The situation is exacerbated by the rapid development of the technologies themselves: Chinese open-weight models are closing the gap with the proprietary systems of OpenAI and Anthropic. At the same time, Beijing is increasingly considering restricting access to its best developments abroad. In July, the FCC already banned the import of Chinese robots and power inverters to protect the AI supply chain.

My analysis: Washington's demand to choose a side is an acknowledgment that the bipolar technological world has become a reality. Small countries such as Kazakhstan will find themselves in the most vulnerable position: an attempt to maneuver between blocs could cost them access to critical technologies and investments. In the coming months, we will see a wave of reassessment of partnership commitments around the world.