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The global architecture of artificial intelligence is rapidly polarizing, and Washington is moving from soft appeals to ultimatums. I have obtained a draft diplomatic document prepared by the U.S. State Department for distribution to the 35 states that signed the Joint Statement on AI Capabilities in June. The essence of the message is crystal clear: an attempt to sit on two chairs at once—participating simultaneously in the American Pax Silica coalition and in competing Chinese projects—automatically closes access to the Western technological architecture.

The Essence of the Ultimatum

The document I analyzed leaves no room for maneuver. "Being part of everything means being part of nothing. Signing the Pax Silica Declaration is not a formality but a commitment," the text states. The authors directly urge partners to "make a conscious choice," emphasizing the incompatibility of Pax Silica membership with participation in initiatives whose goals contradict American interests. Although Beijing is not mentioned in the text, it is perfectly clear to the recipients who is being referred to.

Let me recall the context: Pax Silica, presented in December 2025 by Deputy Secretary of State Jacob Helberg, is a cross-sectoral alliance covering critical raw materials, energy, advanced manufacturing, semiconductors, and AI infrastructure. At the June summit in Washington, 24 states signed the declaration, including Japan, Australia, South Korea, the United Kingdom, Israel, India, the UAE, and the European Union. In August, Italy joined them.

The Chinese Response and Kazakhstan's "Double Game"

Beijing did not stand aside: on July 16, 29 countries, including Russia, Belarus, Serbia, Brazil, Pakistan, Indonesia, and a number of African states, signed an agreement to launch the World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization (WAICO) with headquarters in Shanghai. No G7 country joined it.

The most telling situation is that of Kazakhstan—the only known country formally present in both coalitions. Astana joined Pax Silica in June, and Helberg specifically highlighted the republic's rare earth metal reserves and trans-Caspian transit potential. However, just a month later, President Tokayev participated in the Shanghai conference where WAICO was formalized. It is precisely this "double game" that provoked Washington's harshness.

It is telling that all this is happening against the backdrop of a rapidly narrowing gap between Chinese open-weight models and the proprietary systems of OpenAI and Anthropic. At the same time, Beijing is increasingly considering restricting foreign access to its best developments. In July, the FCC already banned the import of new Chinese robots and power inverters, citing the protection of supply chains for the AI industry.

My analysis: This démarche is not just a diplomatic note but a sign of the formation of a rigid bipolar model in the AI sphere. A market that seemed global just yesterday is today splitting into two camps with incompatible standards and supply chains. For neutral players like Kazakhstan, this means an inevitable choice that will determine their technological sovereignty for decades to come. The only question is who will blink first—and what economic consequences this will have for the global industry.