Polymarket is embracing Pokémon collectible cards: bets on the price of Squirtle, Charizard, and others
The leading decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket is expanding its horizons by launching trading in contracts on the value of collectible Pokémon cards. This is a logical continuation of the strategy to move beyond traditional political and cryptocurrency events, which I have been observing for several months.
At the core of the new markets are quotes for ungraded cards from the popular Collectr app, which specializes in valuing collectible items. Currently, more than ten markets are actively operating on the platform for various Pokémon cards and sealed sets. Users are placing bets on whether the price of a specific item will go Up or Down by a certain date.
As an example, there is a market for the Squirtle card from the Mega Evolution Promos set No. 039. Traders are wagering on whether the price will exceed the $28.23 mark by August 31. Currently, the probability of an increase is estimated at 39%, and during trading this indicator has dropped by 11 percentage points, although it started from nearly zero. Similar contracts are available for Charizard ex, Pikachu ex, Mega Gengar ex, and Bulbasaur cards. Sealed sets are also traded separately, including booster boxes and the Celebrations Ultra Premium Collection.
Interestingly, most markets are currently positioned for price declines. The chances of an increase for the Celebrations set are estimated at only 22%, while traders are more optimistic about Bulbasaur — 64%. The largest trading volume is in the Mega Gengar ex contract, which has gathered about $2,300. However, this is still a drop in the ocean compared to volumes on political markets.
The launch coincides with a cooling of the secondary market for collectible cards. Since late July, buyers have shifted to new releases, which is reflected in the new contracts capturing volatility. For now, volumes remain modest — from a few hundred to a couple of thousand dollars per market, which suggests curiosity rather than confidence among collectors.
However, this expansion also has a downside — regulatory pressure. Baltimore authorities have filed a lawsuit against Polymarket and Kalshi, accusing them of illegal bookmaking activities, and the New York City Council has initiated its own investigation. Analysts are increasingly drawing parallels between prediction markets and stock trading, which is attracting the attention of lawmakers.
It remains unclear whether the new markets will attract Pokémon fans who are accustomed to tracking prices in free apps. To use Polymarket, they will need to connect a crypto wallet and fund it, which creates an additional barrier to mass adoption.
My comment: Polymarket's expansion into the collectibles niche is a smart move to diversify its audience, but for now it looks more like an experiment. Low liquidity and regulatory risks could hold back the development of this direction, yet the potential for creating new, unconventional markets is obvious. Watch how the platform balances between innovation and pressure from authorities.