Bitcoin bottom: 69–73 days until reversal — my cycle analysis and counterarguments
The key takeaway currently being discussed in the market: there are 69 to 73 days left until the next price bottom of bitcoin (BTC). This estimate is based on the current cycle age of 1,363 days. I have analyzed this model and concluded that it deserves attention, although it is not the ultimate truth.
In the two previous cycles, the market reached its bottom on days 1,432 and 1,436, respectively. If we extrapolate this pattern, the next low falls in October 2026. For traders working with cycle theories, this means that the current correction is not the final point, but merely an intermediate stage before the completion of the downward movement.
Why the day-counting model is controversial
The day-counting model has become one of the key tools for many market participants. I have previously pointed out that the current cycle ended almost within the same timeframe as the two previous ones. I cite this argument in favor of the four-year cycle theory. Bitcoin updated its high almost within the same timeframe as in past cycles, despite claims about the end of the four-year cycle — a position I have consistently defended since the beginning of the year.
Bitcoin is sending signals
Special attention should be paid to August and September — these months are traditionally weak for the market. In midterm election years, bitcoin lost on average about 10% in August. In September, the decline typically continued, but more moderately, after which a recovery began. Seasonality is not a guarantee, but it sets the context for expectations.
However, not all analysts agree that the old model still works. At Fidelity, they noted that new lows in annual volatility appeared shortly after bitcoin's all-time high. Previously, such a pattern had not been seen in cycles. Bitwise's Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan went even further. In his assessment, demand from spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and corporate reserves has weakened the previous halving cycle. Grayscale holds the same view: in its 2026 outlook, the company cites sustained ETF inflows as a sign that the previous cycle no longer works as it once did.
At the same time, my recent research shows that the support level has barely changed over four cycles, although the market's final highs have become lower. Whose position is closer to reality will be shown by this coming October.
My verdict: cycle models are a powerful tool, but in the era of institutional dominance, their predictive power is declining. I would not bet that the bottom will be exactly in October, but ignoring historical repetition would be a mistake. The optimal strategy is to prepare for volatility in August-September and view October as a potential reversal zone, but with mandatory confirmation from volume and market structure.