The market of the first cryptocurrency is one step away from a crucial turning point. My analysis of the current cycle structure and historical patterns indicates that there are between 69 and 73 days left until the formation of the local bottom of Bitcoin (BTC). This estimate is based on a careful calculation of the duration of the current cycle, which to date amounts to 1,363 days.
The key argument is the repeatability of time intervals. In the two previous cycles, the market reached its minimum values on the 1,432nd and 1,436th day, respectively. If this pattern holds, the next reference point falls in October 2026. It is then, according to my calculations, that we will see the final phase of the correction.
Why the day-counting model sparks debate
The methodology based on counting days from the start of the cycle has long become one of the key tools for many traders. I have repeatedly emphasized that the current cycle is developing almost in sync with the two previous ones, which serves as strong evidence in favor of the four-year cycle theory. This is not just a coincidence—it is a fundamental pattern that cannot be ignored.
"Bitcoin updated its high almost at the same time as in past cycles, despite all the claims about the end of the four-year cycle,"—this thesis I put forward at the beginning of the year and continue to adhere to it now, observing the development of events.
Signals the market is sending
August and September deserve special attention—historically weak months for the market. In midterm election years, Bitcoin lost on average about 10% of its value in August. In September, the decline usually continued, although it was more moderate, after which a recovery began.
However, not all market participants share my view on the persistence of cyclicality. Some major investment firms note that new annual volatility lows appeared shortly after Bitcoin's all-time high—previously, such a pattern had not been observed in cycles. Moreover, a number of experts argue that demand from spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and corporate reserves has significantly weakened the previous halving cycle. Grayscale holds the same position, where the 2026 outlook cites sustained ETF inflows as a sign that the previous cycle no longer works as it used to.
At the same time, my recent research shows that the support level has barely changed over four cycles, although the final market highs have become lower. Whose position is closer to reality—the upcoming October will tell.
My verdict: despite growing institutional skepticism, the historical accuracy of cycles remains impressive. However, investors should remember that even the most reliable model is merely a probabilistic tool, not a guarantee. Diversification and risk management remain more important than any forecasts.