The market is at a bifurcation point. According to my cycle day counting model, there are 69 to 73 days left until Bitcoin (BTC) forms a local or global bottom. The key benchmark is the current cycle age, which stands at 1,363 days.
The logic is simple and elegant. In the two previous cycles, the market reached its lows on day 1,432 and day 1,436, respectively. Extrapolating this data to the current cycle gives us a window that falls in October 2026. This is not just a random coincidence, but a persistent pattern I have been tracking for years.
Why the model is controversial
My day-counting method has become one of the key tools for many traders, but it also sparks fierce debates. I have repeatedly pointed out that the current cycle is ending at almost the same time as the previous two. This argument is the cornerstone of the four-year cycle theory.
"Bitcoin updated its high at almost the same time as in past cycles, despite claims about the end of the four-year cycle," I emphasized earlier this year, and I continue to hold this position.
Signals the market is sending
Special attention should be paid to August and September. Historically, these months are weak for the market. In midterm election years, Bitcoin lost an average of about 10% in August. In September, the decline usually continued but was more moderate, after which a recovery began.
However, not all analysts agree that the old model still works. At Fidelity, they note that new annual volatility lows appeared shortly after Bitcoin's all-time high. Previously, such a pattern had not been seen in cycles.
Bitwise's Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan went even further. In his assessment, demand from spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and corporate reserves has weakened the previous halving cycle. Grayscale holds the same view: in its 2026 outlook, the company cites sustained ETF inflows as a sign that the previous cycle no longer works as it once did.
At the same time, my recent research shows that the support level has barely changed over four cycles, although the final market highs have become lower. Which position is closer to reality will be shown by this coming October.
My verdict: Arguments about the "death" of the four-year cycle are greatly exaggerated. Institutional money is changing the market's structure, but it does not cancel out psychology and liquidity. October 2026 will be the litmus test: if the bottom forms within my window, then cyclicality is alive, and we are simply witnessing its evolution.