When the crypto market stalls in a sideways trend, capital doesn't disappear—it migrates. Right now, we're seeing a classic scenario: money is flowing into stocks, oil, and targeted trades ahead of quarterly earnings.
My analysis of the latest U.S. macroeconomic data confirms: inflationary pressure is easing. Consumer inflation (CPI) rose only 0.1% month-over-month in July, while the annual figure dropped from 3.5% to 3.4%. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, also slowed—from 2.6% to 2.5%. The Producer Price Index (PPI) was even more telling: monthly growth was flat against a forecast of 0.2%, and annual PPI fell from 5.5% to 4.7%. The market immediately revised expectations: the probability of the Fed holding rates in September is now estimated at around 68%, whereas a week earlier, the odds of a hike reached 55%.
The reaction of the indices was predictable: the S&P 500 hit new all-time highs, the tech sector recovered, with individual stocks gaining 5–10% in a day, and some up to 12%. Bitcoin, against this backdrop, is standing still, holding in the $62,000–65,000 range after falling below $63,000. BTC's weekly volatility of 3% makes it unattractive for trading. The conclusion is obvious: while crypto treads water, you should be trading stocks.
Targeted Scenarios for Key Stocks
I've singled out five instruments with clear entry and exit levels. NVIDIA is trading around $225, with earnings due August 27, and a working range of $220–240. If the price accelerates toward $235–240 and buyers weaken, I'm preparing for a short: a break below $220 would quickly open the path to $210–212. SpaceX is holding near $140, with a key zone of $135–150. A break above $150 opens potential toward $160–170, while a move below $135 targets $120–125. Microsoft is at $495, and I'm watching the $485–510 zone. If it doesn't hold above $505–510, a correction to $485 and then $470–475 is likely. Google is around $346, with a working range of $335–355; a break above $355 leads to $365–370. Apple is at $306: ahead of the September iPhone presentation, I expect the classic sell-the-news event. If it rallies to $315–320 and profit-taking begins, I'll look for shorts at $300, $290, and $295.
Accumulating BTC and ETH for the Long Term
There are no quality new fundamental projects on the market, and the crypto market, in principle, has never been fundamental. A telling example is BlackRock, which allocates a maximum of 1% of investments to crypto—and only to bitcoin and ethereum, with not a single memecoin in the portfolio. So, in spot, I'm accumulating exactly BTC and ETH. Memecoin trading is a gamble dependent on market maker manipulation, whereas stocks react to earnings and economic data, making them more predictable.
Shorting Oil Amid Geopolitics
Brent oil is holding near $89 per barrel, balancing between the risk of supply disruptions due to the situation around the Strait of Hormuz and weak global demand with high U.S. inventories. This prevents the price from settling above $90, although an escalation in the Middle East could quickly push quotes into the $90–95 zone. My scenario builds from resistance: I'm watching the $84–85.50 zone. If demand is weak there, I'm considering a short with a stop at $86–87. The first target is $80–81, with main targets at $76 and $75, offering a potential move of more than 8%. I won't enter before the start of the week: first, I'll see how markets open on Monday and how the price reacts to resistance.
Analog Devices: Earnings August 19
The chipmaker for industrials, autos, and data centers reports on August 19 before the market opens. Investors expect revenue around $3.92–3.93 billion and earnings per share near $3.33–3.34. A strong reaction requires revenue above $4 billion and earnings around $3.40–3.45 or higher—a scenario that's quite possible given strong results last quarter and the rapidly growing data center business. Entry strategy: a limit buy order a few percent above the current price, so the position only opens on a sharp upward move on strong numbers. I won't set a take-profit in advance—I'll lock in profits manually. I used a similar scheme, but in reverse, last week with SanDisk and WDC earnings: after publication, their shares lost more than 10%, and the short played out.
My verdict: This week will belong to stocks, not crypto. BTC and ETH remain for accumulation, not speculation. Key events are NVIDIA's earnings on August 27 and oil levels. If Brent shows weakness at $84–85.50, a short with 8% potential is the best trade of the week.