When the crypto market stalls in a sideways trend, it doesn't mean opportunities for profit have vanished. They simply migrate—to classic assets like stocks and commodities, especially ahead of quarterly earnings reports.

Last week, key U.S. macroeconomic data was released, dramatically shifting the balance of power. Consumer inflation (CPI) in July rose only 0.1% month-over-month, while the annual rate slowed from 3.5% to 3.4%. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, also declined—from 2.6% to 2.5%. But the real surprise was the Producer Price Index (PPI): monthly growth came in at zero against a forecast of 0.2%, and the annual figure dropped from 5.5% to 4.7%.

Shift in Priorities: Why Stocks Are More Interesting Than Crypto Right Now

The market instantly revised its expectations for Fed monetary policy. The probability of holding rates steady in September is now estimated at around 68%, whereas just a week earlier, chances of a hike reached 55%. Indices reacted immediately: the S&P 500 hit new all-time highs, the tech sector recovered, and individual stocks gained 5-10% in a single day—some even 12%.

Bitcoin, against this backdrop, remains in the shadows. After falling below $63,000, it holds in the $62,000-65,000 range, and weekly volatility of 3% makes it extremely unattractive for trading. My conclusion is obvious: while crypto treads water, trading ideas should be sought in the stock market.

Five Specific Scenarios for the Current Week

NVIDIA is trading around $225, with earnings due August 27. The working range is $220-240. If the price accelerates to $235-240 before the release and buyers weaken, I'm considering a short. Losing the $220 level would open the path to $210-212.

SpaceX is near $140, with the key zone at $135-150. A breakout above $150 opens potential toward $160-170, while a move below $135 would take the price into the $120-125 zone.

Microsoft is trading around $495. I'm watching the $485-510 zone. If the price fails to hold above $505-510, a correction to $485 and then to the $470-475 range is likely.

Google is near $346, with a working range of $335-355. A breakout above $355 opens the path to $365-370.

Apple is trading around $306. Ahead of the September presentation of the new iPhone, I expect the classic sell-the-news event. If it rallies to $315-320 and profit-taking begins, I'll look for shorts near $300, $290, and $295.

Spot Strategy: Only BTC and ETH

There are currently no quality new fundamental projects in the market. The crypto market, in principle, has never been fundamental—the example of BlackRock is telling, as it allocates at most 1% of investments to crypto and only in bitcoin and ethereum, with not a single memecoin in the portfolio.

In spot, I'm accumulating precisely BTC and ETH. I compare memecoin trading to gambling: their movement depends on market makers and manipulation and cannot be analyzed. Stocks, on the other hand, react to earnings and economic data, making them more predictable.

Short on Oil: Geopolitics vs. Demand

Brent oil is holding around $89 per barrel, balancing between the risk of supply disruptions due to the situation around the Strait of Hormuz and weak global demand with high U.S. inventories. This prevents the price from consolidating above $90, although an escalation in the Middle East could quickly push quotes into the $90-95 zone.

My scenario builds from resistance. I'm watching the $84-85.50 zone: if I see weak demand there, I'll consider a short with a stop at $86-87. The first target is $80-81, with main targets at $76 and $75, offering potential movement of more than 8%. I won't enter before the start of the week—first, I'll see how the market opens and reacts to resistance.

Analog Devices: Earnings on August 19

The chipmaker for industrials, autos, data centers, and AI will release its report on August 19 before the market opens. Investors expect revenue around $3.92-3.93 billion and earnings per share near $3.33-3.34.

For a strong reaction, revenue above $4 billion and earnings around $3.40-3.45 or higher are needed—such a scenario is quite possible, given strong results last quarter and the rapidly growing data center business. Entry strategy: a limit buy order a few percent above the current price, so the position opens only on a sharp upward move on strong numbers. No take-profit is set in advance—I lock in profits manually based on the price reaction. I used a similar scheme, but in reverse, last week with SanDisk and WDC reports—after publication, their stocks lost more than 10%, and the short worked perfectly.

My professional view: the current macroeconomic picture clearly favors risk assets, but crypto is not yet ready for an independent rally. Until bitcoin shows a confident breakout from its range, a tilt toward stocks with clear earnings looks like a more rational strategy.