July 2026 became a landmark month for the Bitcoin mining market: network difficulty dropped twice in a row, and hashprice surged by nearly 16%. This combination of factors created favorable conditions for miners, who had been going through tough times due to the prolonged decline in the price of the leading cryptocurrency.

At the end of the month, I analyzed the dynamics of key metrics and compiled an up-to-date efficiency ranking of ASIC equipment. The main takeaway: the market is gradually emerging from a phase of contraction, but not all devices are capable of generating positive cash flow.

Network Difficulty: A Rare Event

In July, there were two consecutive negative difficulty adjustments: on July 11, the metric fell by 5%, and on July 25, by another 0.74%. As a result, by the end of the month, network difficulty stood at 126.23 trillion. This dynamic continued the heightened volatility that began back in June, when on the 14th the metric plunged by 10.09%, and on June 27 it partially recovered by 7.15%.

Particularly noteworthy is the fact that a year-over-year decline in difficulty has been recorded only the second time in Bitcoin's history. The first such case occurred in 2021, when China imposed a ban on mining, leading to a massive shutdown of computing power.

Analysts attribute the current trend to a combination of factors: changes in mining economics amid low BTC prices, a reallocation of investments and energy infrastructure in favor of AI/HPC projects, as well as the temporary shutdown of some capacity due to regional restrictions.

Hashprice Growth and Bitcoin Stabilization

In parallel with the decline in difficulty, hashprice—the metric of miners' potential revenue per unit of power—rose. Between June 30 and July 31, it increased from $27.60 to $31.93 per 1 PH/s per day, corresponding to a gain of approximately 15.69%.

The Bitcoin price stabilized in July after a prolonged decline. The monthly average was $63,931.98, which is $752.45 higher than the June level. During the month, the price fluctuated in the range of $60,150.01–$66,433.19. Meanwhile, the dollar exchange rate held within ₽75.93–₽79.86, with an average of ₽77.74.

Leaders and Laggards Among ASICs

The undisputed leader in profitability in July was the Bitmain Antminer S21 XP 270 TH/s, retaining its position from the first half of the year. Its monthly profitability was 1.12% (13.42% annually), allowing it to mine 0.0038313 BTC. In second place was the Bitmain Antminer S21 PRO 234 TH/s MIX with a monthly figure of 0.38% (4.56% annually) and mining output of 0.00332046 BTC. Rounding out the top three was the MicroBT Whatsminer M70 222 TH/s with profitability of 0.24% (2.92% annually) and a result of 0.00315018 BTC.

The remaining models slipped into negative territory. For instance, the Bitmain Antminer S21+ 235 TH/s MIX posted a loss of ₽130.51, while the MicroBT Whatsminer M61S+ 240 TH/s recorded a loss of ₽1,239.48. The range of BTC mined among the reviewed devices was 0.00289476–0.0038313 BTC per month.

My Take on the Situation

June and July showed how quickly network operating conditions can change. After a significant difficulty drop in mid-June, there was a partial recovery, followed by two new consecutive negative adjustments. Mining efficiency should be assessed not by a single difficulty adjustment or a short-term change in the BTC price, but over a longer time horizon.

The current environment is favorable for holders of highly energy-efficient equipment. However, investors considering the purchase of ASICs should keep in mind that even amid rising hashprice, final profitability is determined primarily by the characteristics of the specific model and the cost of electricity. The market is entering a phase where only the most efficient devices will survive.