The United States has approached the midterm congressional elections with an alarming signal for the current administration. Fresh data from a large-scale survey of registered voters shows that Donald Trump's economic agenda is meeting growing rejection among the population.
Numbers that speak for themselves
My attention was drawn to a key statistic: more than 53% of respondents said their financial situation had worsened since Trump's return to the White House. Particularly telling is that this trend crosses party lines — roughly a quarter of Republicans also acknowledged a deterioration in their economic situation. This is a serious wake-up call for the president's strategists, given that the voter's wallet is traditionally considered the main argument in elections.
The survey, conducted in early August among 1,913 registered voters (margin of error — 2.9%), also revealed a record level of dissatisfaction with the president's performance — 55%, including nearly 20% of Republicans. Over the course of a month, the approval rating within his own party fell by 8 percentage points. These are not just numbers — they are an indicator of eroding trust in the economic course.
Inflation as the main stumbling block
What particularly concerns me is the attitude toward anti-inflation policy. Nearly 64% of voters disapprove of Trump's actions in fighting the rising cost of living, and among independents this figure reaches 70%. At the same time, 67% of respondents are convinced that the economy is moving in the wrong direction. July inflation at 3.4% — higher than at the end of Biden's term — and the consumer sentiment index has slid to historic lows. Real incomes are shrinking, and this is not offset by rhetoric about "affordability."
The White House counters the criticism by pointing to lower drug prices, the return of jobs, and tax relief. However, these arguments have yet to resonate with voters, who consistently name inflation and the cost of living as the country's main problems. The survey was conducted before the release of fresh inflation data, which will come out by November — that will be the litmus test for the administration.
My expert view: Markets, including the cryptocurrency market, react sensitively to such sentiment. If dissatisfaction with economic policy persists, we could see increased volatility and a reassessment of expectations regarding the Fed's monetary policy. For investors, this is a signal to watch macroeconomic releases more closely — they are now more important than political statements.