On Monday, August 17, the price of the leading cryptocurrency once again exceeded the $64,000 mark. However, not all market participants view this momentum as the start of a new uptrend. Peter Schiff, a well-known economist and long-time critic of digital assets, considers the current rise merely another opportunity to exit positions, rather than a signal for a reversal.
In his recent commentary, Schiff expressed bewilderment at the lack of a correction but emphasized that this move gives bitcoin holders a chance to lock in profits. According to him, the resistance zone near $65,000 remains key, and the potential for further growth above this level is extremely limited, while the downside risk, on the contrary, is significant. It is worth noting that he simultaneously drew attention again to gold and silver, which are trading at levels above $4,430 and $66.25, respectively, remaining more preferred assets for him.
Macroeconomic factor: Fed rates and market sentiment
The current bitcoin rally, in my view, is driven more by macroeconomic expectations than by technical indicators. The market is actively revising its forecasts regarding the Federal Reserve's next steps. Leading economists, including analysts at Goldman Sachs, are increasingly leaning toward the view that a rate hike in September is unlikely, citing weak retail sales, a sluggish labor market, and slowing inflation.
The CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability of Fed policy tightening next month is estimated at only 30.6% — nearly half of what it was a week earlier. Such expectations typically lead to cheaper credit and increased demand for risk assets, including bitcoin. It is this factor, rather than the actions of individual skeptics, that is currently the main driver for the crypto market, which has shown steady growth since the start of this week.
Ten years of bearish forecasts
Despite Schiff's long-standing skepticism, who since 2011, when bitcoin was worth about $17, has repeatedly predicted its collapse, his forecasts have systematically failed to materialize. His latest statement about a possible drop below $20,000 if the $50,000 level is lost has also not yet been confirmed.
My analysis: Whether bitcoin stays below $65,000 now depends solely on new inflation data and the outcome of the September meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve. The forecasts of an individual skeptic, no matter how authoritative, are unlikely to have a significant impact on a market that operates according to its own macroeconomic laws. In the current conditions, I would advise investors to closely monitor statistical releases rather than emotional statements on social media.