On Monday, August 17, Bitcoin (BTC) once again tested the $64,000 zone, and this move instantly sparked a wave of discussions about the market's future trajectory. While some traders see this as a bullish signal, others, including a well-known economist and long-time critic of digital gold, advise against getting carried away.
In my opinion, the current situation is a classic test of strength. The rise toward the psychologically important level of $65,000, which previously acted as strong resistance, raises a legitimate question: is this the start of a new uptrend, or are we witnessing a final push before a correction?
A well-known skeptic, in his address to the audience, emphasized that he sees no reason for the current rise other than an opportunity for holders to exit positions with smaller losses. He reminds that $65,000 is a historical resistance zone, and the potential for movement higher is extremely limited, while a decline could be significant. As an alternative, he again points to traditional safe-haven assets: gold, trading above $4,430, and silver, holding above $66.25.
Macroeconomic backdrop favors risk
However, in my view, the reason for the rise lies not in technical indicators but in macroeconomic expectations. The market is actively pricing in monetary policy easing. According to the latest data, the probability of a Fed rate hike in September is estimated by traders at only 30.6%—nearly half of what it was a week ago. Such expectations traditionally make credit cheaper and spur demand for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
This is also confirmed by comments from Goldman Sachs' chief economist, who pointed to weak retail sales, a sluggish labor market, and slowing inflation as factors reducing the likelihood of policy tightening. It is these news items from Washington, not on-chain data, that are currently driving the market.
Ten years of bearish forecasts
It is worth recalling that this economist has been publicly "burying" Bitcoin for over a decade—since the coin was worth around $17. During this time, he has made more than 20 such statements. He also predicted a collapse below $20,000 if the $50,000 level were lost, but that scenario never materialized.
Whether Bitcoin holds positions above $65,000 this time will depend not on the forecasts of a single skeptic, but on fresh inflation data and the outcome of the September Fed meeting. If the regulator takes a pause, bulls will have a serious trump card. If not, we may see the very correction the bears are warning about.
My stance: Schiff's opinion should not be dismissed, but blindly trusting him is also unwise. His bearish sentiment is more of a constant than an indicator. The key signal for the market will be not his tweet, but the Fed's rhetoric and macroeconomic statistics in the coming weeks. These will determine who is right in this prolonged debate.