On Monday, August 17, the price of the leading cryptocurrency once again tested the $64,000 level, which immediately drew a reaction from well-known skeptic Peter Schiff. The economist and longtime critic of digital assets called this rise not the start of a new uptrend, but merely another opportunity to exit positions.
In his latest post, Schiff once again expressed bewilderment over Bitcoin's resilience, which, by his logic, should have corrected downward long ago. He emphasizes that the $65,000 zone is a strong resistance level, and the potential for further growth above this mark is extremely limited. At the same time, in his view, a decline could be quite significant. As an alternative, he again points to traditional safe-haven assets—gold, trading above $4,430, and silver, holding above $66.25.
Macroeconomic backdrop matters more than a skeptic's forecasts
However, Bitcoin's current dynamics are likely driven not so much by technical levels as by shifting expectations regarding the monetary policy of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed). Recent macroeconomic data, including weak retail sales and a cooling labor market, have significantly reduced the likelihood of a rate hike at the September meeting. According to the latest estimates, the market is pricing in only about a 30.6% probability of policy tightening—nearly half of what it was a week earlier.
Such shifts in expectations traditionally support risk assets, and Bitcoin was no exception, breaking out of its previous trading range amid a broader crypto market recovery. This is a more significant factor for price movement than anyone's subjective forecasts.
Ten years of bearish predictions
It is worth recalling that Schiff has maintained his ultra-bearish stance on Bitcoin for over a decade. Since 2011, when the coin was worth about $17, he has repeatedly "buried" it, doing so more than 20 times. His recent claims of a possible collapse below $20,000 if the $50,000 level were lost have also not yet been confirmed in actual quotes.
My view: Schiff's forecasts have become more of a meme than an analytical tool. The market is currently influenced by macroeconomic data and Fed decisions. The $65,000 level is indeed key resistance, but a breakout amid a softening of the regulator's rhetoric could trigger a much more powerful move than individual skeptics expect. The key trigger will be inflation data and the outcome of the September Fed meeting, not the opinion of one, albeit well-known, economist.