The cryptocurrency market is on the verge of a significant structural shift. The multi-year downtrend in the ETH/BTC pair, which has held ether back since 2021, appears to have finally been broken. This is not a random bounce, but a fundamental reassessment of Ethereum's role in the new digital asset economy.
In my latest weekly reserve management review, I highlighted two key drivers that could put ether on a trajectory of outpacing growth relative to bitcoin. First, Wall Street's transition to blockchain-based settlements, which directly increases the utility of the Ethereum network. The second reason is the rapid proliferation of AI agents—autonomous programs that execute transactions without human involvement. In my assessment, the market is beginning to actively price in these two factors.
The ETH/BTC ratio, reaching 0.02994, has broken through the downtrend that dominated for several years. Historically, such breakouts have served as harbingers of powerful bull cycles. In 2017–2018, ICOs provided the push, then NFTs took up the baton, and now it's the turn of stablecoins and AI infrastructure. This is not just a speculative game, but a shift in fundamental value drivers.
BitMine's Shift in Priorities: Less ETH — More Shares
Particular attention deserves the strategy of BitMine, which holds over 5.815 million ETH—approximately 4.8% of the total issuance of 120.7 million coins. The value of the stake approaches $11 billion at an ether price of around $1902. The company's total cryptocurrency and fiat reserves have reached $11.4 billion, including 210 BTC.
However, the dynamics of purchases have changed dramatically. Over the past week, the company added only 9,926 ETH to its balance, while the average weekly volume over the last 43 weeks was 59,998 ETH. The last five weeks are the only stretch since late October where purchases did not exceed 11,000 ETH. For comparison: in December, the volume reached up to 138,452 ETH. To raise its share to 5%, BitMine would need to purchase approximately another 220,000 ETH—at December's pace, this would take less than a month.
Instead, the company's capital is directed toward share buybacks. Over the week, BitMine repurchased 1.7 million shares, and since July 1, the total volume has reached 20.8 million—the largest case among all public crypto companies.
My analysis: The reduction in ETH purchases amid aggressive share buybacks is not a bearish signal for ether, but rather a sign of market maturity. Institutions are moving from simple accumulation to more complex capital management strategies. The ETH/BTC breakout, combined with the growth of AI agents and the tokenization of real-world assets, creates the prerequisites for Ethereum's sustained outperformance over bitcoin in the medium term. However, investors should remember: the pair's volatility will remain high, and the key support level for the new trend will be the 0.028 mark.