Key takeaway from last night: the market is signaling a reversal. VanEck notes the end of Bitcoin's 11-month correction, BlackRock sees only temporary difficulties, and 12 of the 15 largest institutional holders of Strategy have increased their positions. This is not just news — it is a shift in the cycle phase.
Market in numbers: calm before the storm
As of 09:05 Moscow time, Bitcoin was trading around $64,174, holding within a narrow range of $64,000–$64,950 on the 15-minute chart. Over the past day, the price remained virtually unchanged, gaining a symbolic 0.04%. Ether (ETH) showed slightly more momentum, rising 0.81% to $1,908, with overnight fluctuations within $1,892–$1,918.
Altcoins in the top 20 showed low volatility. The growth leader was Solana (SOL) with a gain of 1.42%, while Hyperliquid (HYPE) lost 1.49% and BNB fell 0.33%. In the top 100, Velvet (VELVET) stood out with an impressive rise of 30.22%. Gnosis (GNO) and LayerZero (ZRO) gained 10.98% and 6.45%, respectively. Among the laggards were MemeCore (M), down 6.66%, followed by Jito (JTO) with a decline of 6.14% and Curve DAO Token (CRV) with a loss of 4.12%.
Inflows into spot crypto ETFs continue. Bitcoin funds attracted $189.30 million, ether products $71.47 million, and XRP products $5.81 million. This indicates that institutional appetite for digital assets remains intact even amid the correction.
Liquidations and sentiment
Over the past 24 hours, 57,225 trader positions were liquidated for a total of $177.02 million. Interestingly, short positions accounted for more — $98.53 million, while longs lost $78.49 million. The largest liquidation order was recorded on Hyperliquid for the BTC-USD pair: $23.35 million. This suggests that bears are still trying to pressure the market, but their strength is waning.
Institutional signal: accumulation phase
VanEck analysts, including Matthew Sigel, believe that Bitcoin is completing an almost 11-month correction and entering an accumulation phase. Their "capitulation check" model shows that eight of twelve signals have already triggered. Over the past three months, all twelve indicators have at some point dipped into the capitulation zone, which historically precedes a trend reversal.
BlackRock, for its part, states that Bitcoin's drop of more than 50% from its October peak does not change long-term prospects. In their assessment, the crash is linked to a reduction in leverage, weakening capital inflows, and slower purchases by corporate holders, rather than a change in the asset's investment value. At the peak, open interest in crypto futures exceeded $90 billion, with about 80% in perpetual contracts outside CME. Spot Bitcoin funds attracted around $60 billion from January 2024 to October 2025, followed by outflows of roughly $5 billion. BlackRock still views Bitcoin as a portfolio diversification tool.
Data from 13F reports for the second quarter confirms: 12 of the 15 largest institutional holders of Strategy shares increased their positions, despite the company's own Bitcoin sales. This demonstrates sustained confidence among major players in Michael Saylor's long-term strategy.
My conclusion: the market has passed the point of maximum fear, and now we are seeing a classic accumulation phase before a new impulse. Institutions are not just holding positions — they are increasing them. When Bitcoin breaks through the resistance zone above $65,000, we could see a rapid upward move that will catch many short sellers off guard.