The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has put forward an ambitious project, Regulation Crypto Assets, aimed at transforming the rules for raising capital through tokens. The key feature of the initiative is the creation of a "safe harbor" for a range of digital assets, which could significantly reduce regulatory pressure on issuers.

The Essence of the Proposal

The regulator proposes two exemptions from the standard registration requirements under the Securities Act of 1933. The first mechanism would allow crypto companies to raise up to $5 million over four years, and the second—up to $75 million per 12-month period. In both cases, disclosing information to investors remains a mandatory condition, and for larger offerings, financial statements and regular filings with the SEC will be required.

Of particular interest is the "safe harbor" for investment contracts. Under certain conditions, a crypto asset could be exempt from the rules applied to securities. This opens new horizons for projects seeking to avoid strict classification of their tokens.

After publication in the Federal Register, a 60-day public comment period will begin. SEC Chairman Paul Atkins emphasizes that the new rules will not replace the legislative framework being developed by Congress. In his view, it is laws that will provide more sustainable standards, which will be harder to overturn when the commission's leadership changes.

Context: The CLARITY Act and the Battle for Authority

The SEC's initiative comes amid active work in Congress on the CLARITY Act—a bill designed to delineate the powers of the SEC and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in the digital asset market. On August 8, Senate Republican Majority Leader John Thune initiated the procedure to move toward consideration of the document. The vote is scheduled for September 15, immediately after senators return from recess.

Ripple's Chief Legal Officer and President of the National Crypto Association, Stuart Alderoty, calls this vote a critical test for the bill. "September 15 will be an indicator of whether the bill continues to advance through Congress," he stated. Moving to consideration will require 60 votes, making the outcome far from predetermined.

White House Optimism and Controversial Issues

Patrick Witt, the White House's top crypto advisor, remains optimistic and expects progress on the CLARITY Act after the Senate returns. The administration is ready to sit down at the negotiating table with Democrats to resolve differences. Among the most contentious topics are rewards for stablecoin holders. Senators Angela Alsobrooks and Tom Tillis have proposed a compromise: banning platforms from paying for holding "stablecoins," but allowing accruals for payments and other transactions.

Democrats are also insisting on additional ethical restrictions related to the cryptocurrency interests of President Donald Trump and his family. A rule is being discussed that would prohibit government officials and their spouses from issuing or promoting their own digital assets, while owning cryptocurrencies remains legal.

Realistic Assessment: Chances of Passage

Miller Whitehouse-Levine, head of the Solana Policy Institute, estimates the likelihood of the CLARITY Act passing before the November midterm elections at just 10%. "Right now, I'd say it's in the purgatory of the August recess," he notes. His pessimism stems not only from a lack of time but also from the growing number of negotiators with their own interests. For comparison, prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi estimate the chances of the law passing by year-end at 20% and 33%, respectively.

The expert urges federal regulators not to wait for Congress but to independently create regulatory mechanisms, prioritizing rules for token issuance and trading in tokenized securities. It is worth recalling that in August, the U.S. Treasury already proposed rules for stablecoins under the GENIUS Act.

My analysis: The SEC's proposal is a timely step that could provide the industry with much-needed clarity. However, as history shows, regulatory initiatives in the U.S. often get stuck in political quagmires. If the CLARITY Act fails, the market will be left with fragmented rules from two agencies, creating new arbitrage opportunities but also increasing uncertainty for institutional players. In any case, September 15 will be a key date for the entire U.S. crypto sector.