While retail traders were dormant, the market was quietly laying the foundation for a new cycle. My observations of capital flows and the behavior of the largest players indicate that the bottom is likely already behind us. Key signals from VanEck and BlackRock, as well as the activity of institutional holders like Strategy, confirm that the accumulation phase has begun.
Market in numbers: the calm before the storm
At the time of analysis, at 09:05 Moscow time, bitcoin (BTC) was trading around $64,174. The night session was subdued: quotes held within a narrow range of $64,000 – $64,950, adding a symbolic 0.04% over the day. Ether (ETH) showed slightly more momentum, rising 0.81% to $1,908, with overnight fluctuations within $1,892 – $1,918.
Altcoins in the top 20 showed low volatility. The growth leader was Solana (SOL) with a gain of 1.42%, while Hyperliquid (HYPE) lost 1.49% and BNB fell 0.33%. Among the top 100, Velvet (VELVET) stood out, surging 30.22%. Gnosis (GNO) and LayerZero (ZRO) gained 10.98% and 6.45%, respectively. In the red was MemeCore (M) with a drop of 6.66%, followed by Jito (JTO) and Curve DAO Token (CRV), which lost 6.14% and 4.12%.
Institutional signal: inflows and liquidations
Analysis of flows into spot ETFs demonstrates a return of risk appetite. Bitcoin funds attracted $189.30 million, Ethereum products — $71.47 million, and XRP-ETF — $5.81 million. This suggests that institutional money is not just holding positions but also increasing them, ignoring the recent correction.
Over the past 24 hours, positions worth $177.02 million were liquidated. Of these, $78.49 million were longs and $98.53 million were shorts. The largest liquidation order was recorded on Hyperliquid — for the BTC-USD pair at $23.35 million. The predominance of shorts in liquidations is a classic sign that the market is shaking out "weak hands" before a reversal.
VanEck and BlackRock analytics: the bottom is passed
VanEck analysts, including Matthew Sigel and Patrick Bush, concluded that bitcoin is completing an almost 11-month correction. According to their "capitulation check" model, eight of twelve signals have already triggered, indicating a transition of the market into the accumulation phase. This is an important technical indicator that historically precedes significant price movements.
BlackRock, in turn, stated that a drop of more than 50% from the October peak does not change the long-term prospects of the asset. They attribute the decline to a reduction in leverage, weakening capital inflows, and slower purchases by corporate holders, rather than a change in investment value. At the peak, open interest in crypto futures exceeded $90 billion, with about 80% in perpetual contracts outside CME. From January 2024 to October 2025, spot bitcoin funds attracted about $60 billion, followed by an outflow of only $5 billion — a minor correction against the overall trend.
Institutional strategy: confidence despite the market
Data from 13F reports for the second quarter shows that 12 of the 15 largest institutional holders of Strategy shares increased their positions. This occurs amid bitcoin sales by Michael Saylor's company itself, which only underscores the long-term confidence of large players in the asset. My verdict: The combination of signals — from VanEck's technical models to ETF flows and institutional actions — indicates that the market has passed the peak of capitulation. We are entering an accumulation phase that historically lasts from several weeks to several months. Current levels may be the last opportunity for entry before the next growth impulse.