BlackRock analysts maintain a constructive view on bitcoin, despite a more than 50% decline from October highs. In the asset manager's updated ten-year study, it is emphasized: the current correction is the result of deleveraging and capital reallocation, not a collapse of the fundamental investment thesis of the first cryptocurrency.
Deleveraging after a record rally
From the lows of late 2022, bitcoin rose approximately 700%, reaching an all-time high in October 2025. However, by early June 2026, the price had pulled back below $60,000. The key trigger was the U.S. introduction of additional tariffs against China, sparking a global sell-off: the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and emerging market stocks lost 3–4% in October, bitcoin — 6%, Ethereum — 11%.
For the crypto market, the consequences proved unprecedented. Total open interest in bitcoin futures exceeded $90 billion by early October, with about 80% in perpetual contracts with leverage up to 50–125x. Within a day, the figure shrank by roughly $20 billion — the largest one-day drop on record. Waves of forced liquidations repeated in February and June 2026, which BlackRock views as a "positioning correction" — a cleansing of the market from excessive leverage.
Competition for institutional capital
The second significant pressure factor was the slowdown in institutional demand. From January 2024 to autumn 2025, spot bitcoin ETFs attracted about $60 billion, but after the October reversal, outflows began: through July 2026, cumulative withdrawals from the category totaled approximately $5 billion.
In parallel, there was explosive growth in interest in funds with exposure to artificial intelligence. From October 2025 to July 2026, such products attracted more than $46 billion versus $10 billion in the preceding period. It is important to understand: the AI Thematic category is interpreted broadly — from specialized AI ETFs to semiconductor sector funds and index products. Therefore, this is not about a direct transfer of $46 billion from bitcoin, but rather competition for a limited pool of investment capital.
Strategy and shifting sentiment
As a separate source of pressure, BlackRock cites changing investor attitudes toward companies with bitcoin on their balance sheets, primarily Strategy. Michael Saylor's firm controls about 4% of the first cryptocurrency's maximum supply, actively raising capital through the issuance of preferred shares. The test sale of 32 BTC in late May 2026 (about $2.5 million, or 0.004% of the position) in itself could not crash the market, but it became a signal: even the most convinced holders are beginning to consider monetization options. Later, Strategy officially allowed the sale of bitcoin for share buybacks.
Dual nature and volatility
BlackRock maintains its thesis of bitcoin as a diversification tool, describing its behavior as a "dual nature." During periods of mass deleveraging, correlation with risk assets rises sharply — this is a structural feature of a highly leveraged market. However, on a long horizon, the picture differs: bitcoin's average ten-year correlation with the S&P 500 is only 0.18, while gold's is 0.06, emerging market stocks — 0.57, and high-yield bonds — 0.69.
Bitcoin's realized 12-month volatility at the end of June 2026 stood at about 40% — significantly below historical values, but still higher than gold (26%) and the "Magnificent Seven" stocks (20%). Infrastructure development — from spot exchanges to regulated CME futures and spot ETFs — has deepened liquidity, but the growth of the highly leveraged perpetual contracts market partially offsets this progress.
My comment: BlackRock, managing the largest spot bitcoin ETF, is objectively interested in maintaining a positive narrative. However, the presented data on the growing popularity of AI funds deserves attention: capital rotation from crypto assets into artificial intelligence technologies could become a long-term trend capable of limiting bitcoin's growth potential in the coming quarters.