The digital asset market is sending mixed but highly telling signals. On one hand, the leading cryptocurrency continues to consolidate within a narrow range, reflecting a wait-and-see stance among participants. On the other, the actions of the largest institutional players suggest that the current phase may not be just another correction, but the completion of a prolonged cycle of capital redistribution.
Key moves by market leaders
At the time of writing this review, Bitcoin was trading near the $64,174 mark, showing minimal change over the day (+0.04%). The overnight session ranged between $64,000 and $64,950, confirming a high degree of uncertainty. Ethereum also remained range-bound, holding around $1,908 and gaining 0.81% over 24 hours. Among the top-20 altcoins, Solana stood out (+1.42%), while Hyperliquid and BNB posted slight declines of 1.49% and 0.33%, respectively.
In the top-100, Velvet showed the most impressive momentum, surging by 30.22%. Notable gains were also recorded for Gnosis (+10.98%) and LayerZero (+6.45%). Among the laggards were MemeCore, which lost 6.66% of its value, as well as Jito (-6.14%) and Curve DAO Token (-4.12%).
Flows into spot ETFs continue to remain positive: Bitcoin funds attracted $189.30 million, Ethereum products brought in $71.47 million, and XRP ETFs added $5.81 million. Meanwhile, the total volume of liquidations over the day stood at $177.02 million, affecting the positions of 57,225 traders. Interestingly, short positions accounted for more — $98.53 million versus $78.49 million in longs. The largest single liquidation order was recorded on Hyperliquid for the BTC-USD pair, amounting to $23.35 million.
Institutional signal: reversal or trap?
Analysts at VanEck have concluded that Bitcoin is likely completing an almost 11-month correction and entering an accumulation phase. According to their "capitulation check" model, eight out of twelve signals have already triggered. Over the past three months, all twelve indicators have at some point dipped into the capitulation zone, pointing to a possible passing of the market's peak price pressure.
BlackRock, for its part, emphasizes that a decline of more than 50% from the October peak does not change the asset's long-term prospects. They attribute the crash to a reduction in leverage, weakening capital inflows, and slower purchases by corporate holders, rather than a shift in Bitcoin's investment value. Notably, at the peak, open interest in crypto futures exceeded $90 billion, with about 80% accounted for by off-exchange CME contracts.
Additional confirmation of confidence among major players comes from 13F filings for the second quarter: 12 of the 15 largest institutional holders of Strategy shares increased their positions, despite the company itself selling Bitcoin. This indicates a high degree of trust in the long-term reserve management strategy.
My view: The combination of signals — from institutional activity picking up to stabilizing ETF flows — does indeed suggest that the bottom is likely already behind us. However, one should not forget that the accumulation phase can be prolonged and volatile. Investors should prepare for potential retests of key levels before a sustained upward trend begins.