The world's largest asset manager maintains a constructive view on bitcoin, despite its decline of more than 50% from the all-time high reached in October 2025. In my analysis of BlackRock's latest report, the key takeaway is that the current correction is not a collapse of the investment thesis, but rather a natural process of cleansing the market of excessive leverage and redistributing capital.
Deleveraging as the main trigger
After rising roughly 700% from the lows of late 2022, bitcoin faced a serious wave of forced liquidations. Total open interest in futures exceeded $90 billion by early October 2025, with about 80% concentrated in perpetual contracts with leverage of up to 125x. The introduction of new US trade tariffs triggered a synchronized sell-off: the S&P 500 and Nasdaq lost 3-4%, bitcoin 6%, and Ethereum 11%. The one-day reduction in open interest of $20 billion was the largest ever recorded, confirming that the market was overheated with speculative capital.
Competition with artificial intelligence
The second significant pressure factor was the slowdown in institutional inflows. While spot bitcoin ETFs attracted about $60 billion from January 2024 to autumn 2025, outflows reached approximately $5 billion by July 2026. In parallel, there was an explosive surge in interest in AI-related funds: over $46 billion in nine months versus $10 billion in the previous twenty months. Although the AI Thematic category includes a wide range of instruments—from semiconductor ETFs to index funds—it is clear that institutional investors see artificial intelligence as a more attractive growth story at the current stage.
Signals from Strategy and old whales
Particular attention deserves the episode with Michael Saylor's Strategy. A test sale of 32 BTC (about $2.5 million) in late May 2026 became the catalyst for a drop to $70,000, even though it represented only 0.004% of the company's position. This is a purely psychological signal, but it changed the market's perception of companies financing bitcoin purchases through debt instruments. Later, Strategy officially allowed the sale of coins for share buybacks, adding further pressure. Additionally, large fund movements by old holders and miners, as well as a block trade with IBIT worth $1.3 billion in May, intensified the correction.
Dual nature and prospects
Despite the volatility, BlackRock emphasizes the "dual nature" of bitcoin. During periods of mass deleveraging, it correlates with risk assets, but over the long horizon, the ten-year correlation with the S&P 500 is only 0.18. Realized volatility has declined to 40% from historical levels above 100%, indicating the maturation of infrastructure. However, the growth of the high-leverage perpetual futures market partially offsets this progress.
My comment: BlackRock's thesis that bitcoin is becoming "digital gold" for institutional portfolios looks convincing, but the current correction shows that the path to this status will be thorny. As long as AI stocks offer more predictable returns, bitcoin will remain hostage to speculative positioning. Investors should view this period as an opportunity for accumulation, not as a signal to exit.