BlackRock analysts maintain a constructive view on bitcoin's role in portfolios, despite a more than 50% decline from October's peak. In the asset manager's updated ten-year study, the sell-off is characterized as a consequence of deleveraging and capital reallocation, rather than a fundamental degradation of the first cryptocurrency's investment case.
According to my calculations based on BlackRock data, hypothetically adding 1–2% bitcoin to a traditional portfolio (60/40) would historically have improved its risk-adjusted returns. This is a key thesis the company defends even amid the current correction.
Deleveraging after the record
After the lows of late 2022, bitcoin rose roughly 700% and updated its all-time high in October 2025. However, by early June 2026, the price had halved—below $60,000. Total open interest in bitcoin futures exceeded $90 billion by October 2025, with about 80% in perpetual contracts outside CME with leverage of up to 50–125x.
The U.S. introduction of additional tariffs against China triggered a synchronized sell-off: the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and emerging market equities lost 3–4% in October, bitcoin—6%, Ethereum—11%. For the crypto market, the consequences were more dramatic: open interest fell by roughly $20 billion in a single day—the largest one-day drop in the history of observations.
Investors shifted to AI
The second pressure factor was a slowdown in institutional demand. From January 2024 to autumn 2025, spot bitcoin ETFs attracted about $60 billion, but after the October reversal through July 2026, cumulative outflows totaled roughly $5 billion. Meanwhile, funds with AI exposure attracted more than $46 billion over the same period versus $10 billion earlier.
It's important to understand: the AI Thematic category is interpreted broadly—from specialized AI ETFs to semiconductor sector funds and leveraged products on chipmaker stocks. Therefore, there was no direct shift of $46 billion specifically from bitcoin into AI, but the competition for capital is evident.
Strategy heightened market concerns
A separate source of pressure was the changing attitude toward companies holding bitcoin on their balance sheets. Michael Saylor's Strategy, holding about 4% of the maximum issuance, conducted a test sale of 32 BTC for roughly $2.5 million in May 2026—about 0.004% of its position. The market's reaction was telling: the asset immediately fell to $70,000. BlackRock views this episode not as a proven cause of the crash, but as a signal of shifting sentiment.
Bitcoin showed a "dual nature"
Despite the correction, BlackRock maintains its thesis on bitcoin's diversification properties. The average ten-year correlation with the S&P 500 is just 0.18—lower than gold (0.06) and the commodity market (0.29), but higher than high-yield bonds (0.69). Analysts consider short-term correlation spikes during deleveraging as episodic rather than structural.
Notably, in Q2, funding rates on perpetual futures briefly turned negative while demand for equities persisted. This indicates a significant reduction in speculative positioning and creates prerequisites for bitcoin returning to lower correlation with risk assets.
Volatility declined but remains high
Bitcoin's realized 12-month volatility at the end of June 2026 was about 40%, versus 26% for gold and 12% for the S&P 500. The decline in the metric is tied to infrastructure development: from spot exchanges to regulated CME futures, options, and ETFs. However, the growth of the high-leverage perpetual contracts market partially offsets this progress.
My conclusion: the current correction is primarily a cleansing of the market from excessive credit leverage, not a shift in the long-term trend. But investors should consider that competition for capital from the AI sector has now become a structural factor that will exert pressure on bitcoin during periods of uncertainty.