The market of the first cryptocurrency is undergoing a deep correction, and my analysis shows that this is not a coincidence, but a natural outcome of accumulated imbalances. After the all-time high of October 2025, bitcoin has fallen by more than 50%, and now the key question is whether this is the beginning of a structural reversal or merely a painful but necessary clearing of positions. In my expert review — a detailed breakdown of the pressure factors, from deleveraging to competition with AI funds.
Deleveraging after the record: the mechanics of the collapse
From the lows of late 2022, bitcoin demonstrated an impressive growth of about 700%, peaking in October 2025. However, by early June 2026, the price had pulled back below $60,000. The key trigger was a wave of forced liquidations. Total open interest in bitcoin futures exceeded $90 billion by October 2025, with about 80% in perpetual contracts outside CME, where leverage reached 50–125x.
The U.S. introduction of additional tariffs against China triggered a synchronized sell-off: the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and emerging market stocks lost 3–4% in October, bitcoin — 6%, Ethereum — 11%. For the crypto market, the consequences were catastrophic: open interest shrank by about $20 billion in a single day — the largest one-day drop in the history of observations. Additional waves of liquidations swept through in February and June 2026, confirming that the market is shedding accumulated leverage.
Investors have shifted to AI
The second significant pressure factor was the slowdown in institutional demand. From January 2024 to autumn 2025, spot bitcoin ETFs attracted about $60 billion. However, after the October reversal, the situation changed: until July 2026, cumulative outflows amounted to approximately $5 billion. At the same time, inflows into AI-related funds surged: from October 2025 to July 2026, they attracted more than $46 billion versus $10 billion in the previous period. It is evident that the growing interest in stocks of companies with exposure to artificial intelligence competes with bitcoin for investment capital.
It is important to understand that the AI Thematic category is interpreted broadly — from specialized AI ETFs to semiconductor sector funds. Therefore, the data does not imply a direct shift of $46 billion specifically from bitcoin into AI, but the trend is clear: investors are seeking new growth stories.
Strategy and the behavior of large holders
A separate source of pressure was the changing attitude toward companies with bitcoin on their balance sheets. Michael Saylor's firm holds about 4% of the first cryptocurrency's maximum supply. A test sale of 32 BTC for $2.5 million in late May 2026 — just 0.004% of the position — triggered an immediate drop in the asset to $70,000. This is not a proven cause of the large-scale collapse, but it is a powerful signal: the market has begun to doubt the sustainability of the model of financing purchases through share issuance and debt instruments. Later, Strategy updated its capital allocation rules, allowing the sale of bitcoins for share buybacks, which heightened nervousness.
The dual nature of bitcoin
Despite the correction, my forecast remains moderately positive. Bitcoin exhibits a "dual nature": during periods of mass deleveraging, it moves in tandem with risk assets, but over the long horizon, its correlation with the S&P 500 is only 0.18 — versus 0.57 for emerging markets and 0.69 for high-yield bonds. In Q2, funding rates on perpetual futures briefly turned negative, indicating a significant reduction in speculative positioning. This creates conditions for bitcoin to return to a lower correlation with other risk assets.
Volatility: a downward trend
Bitcoin's realized 12-month volatility at the end of June 2026 stood at about 40%. For comparison: gold — 26%, "Magnificent Seven" stocks — 20%, S&P 500 — 12%. The decline from historical levels of 100%+ is tied to infrastructure development: regulated CME contracts, options, and spot ETFs have deepened liquidity. However, the growth of the high-leverage perpetual futures market has partially offset this progress, potentially amplifying sharp price movements.
My conclusion: the current correction is not the end of bitcoin's investment case, but a painful yet necessary clearing. The rotation into AI is a temporary factor, not a structural shift. After the large-scale reduction of leverage, bitcoin can once again demonstrate its diversification properties, especially amid macroeconomic uncertainty. I recommend investors view current levels as an accumulation zone, but with mandatory consideration of high volatility and the risks of total capital loss.