Russia's regulator intends to tighten requirements for the production of microelectronics for artificial intelligence systems. This involves amending government resolution No. 719, which defines the mechanism for recognizing products as domestically produced. This is a step that could radically change the balance of power in the high-tech equipment market.
The agency, together with leading electronics manufacturers, is discussing adding new product categories to the regulation. Microchips with AI features, neural network accelerators for machine data processing, and computing devices designed for automatic data analysis could fall under the new rules. To have their products recognized as domestically produced, manufacturers will need to earn a certain number of points for localization.
The essence of the innovations
So far, the key parameter — the minimum point threshold — remains a subject of negotiations between the industry and officials. It is this indicator that will determine how deep localization must be. The scoring system itself, established in resolution No. 719, is already in operation: points are awarded for the share of technological operations and the use of Russian components. The total result grants the right to include the product in the register of domestic radio electronics, which opens access to preferences in government procurement.
Expanding the list to include AI equipment is a signal that the state views artificial intelligence as a strategic direction. The mechanism has already proven itself as a basic tool for determining the "Russianness" of electronics, and its adaptation to new technological realities looks like a logical step.
Global context and the bet on sovereignty
The initiative is unfolding against the backdrop of unprecedented global demand for computing power. Chinese exports grew by 23.9% year-on-year in July, and the country's chip shipments more than doubled in a month compared to the previous year. This boom is also fueling stock markets: South Korea's KOSPI index has recovered more than 20% from its July lows, and analysts at The Kobeissi Letter record a record $430 billion in free cash flow among the four largest chipmakers over 12 months.
Against this backdrop, Russia is betting on its own production. However, the success of this strategy directly depends on two factors: the availability of real production capacity within the country and how realistic the point threshold set by the regulator will be. Too strict requirements could scare off investors, while too lenient ones would turn the register into a formality.
My view: Amid the global race for AI computing, where capital expenditures of giants are estimated to reach $1.8 trillion by 2026-2027, the local initiative looks timely but extremely ambitious. Without access to advanced lithographic technologies and materials, the point system may only stimulate "screwdriver assembly" rather than genuine technological independence. The key indicator is whether Russia can create at least a basic production chain for AI accelerators, not just formally meet the criteria.