The prediction market platform Kalshi has filed an application with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to launch perpetual contracts (perpetuals) on a major U.S. stock index and copper. This is a direct challenge to traditional exchange giants, which have built their business for decades exclusively on contracts with fixed expiration dates.
The mechanics of perpetual contracts, familiar to every crypto trader, are now targeting traditional assets. Unlike standard futures, perps have no expiration date. A market participant can hold a position for as long as they wish, while regularly paying or receiving funding to keep the contract price from deviating from the value of the underlying asset.
Breakthrough after bitcoin perp approval
For a long time, such a scheme remained the prerogative of offshore crypto exchanges — within the U.S., similar instruments were not approved. However, in May of this year, the situation changed dramatically. The CFTC gave the green light for the first time to a perpetual contract on bitcoin for a U.S.-licensed exchange — that product was Kalshi's.
Success was not long in coming. In the first week of trading, volume exceeded $1 billion, and after two weeks, the figure reached $5.5 billion. Building on this triumph, Kalshi is expanding its lineup: earlier this month, the company filed applications for gold and silver perps, and now — for an exchange index and copper.
Legal backdrop: CME lawsuit against crypto perps
The new application comes amid active litigation. CME Group is challenging the classification of perpetual bitcoin contracts, arguing that they are not futures but swaps. Kalshi and the CFTC hold a different position: in their logic, a perp is a regular futures contract, just without a fixed expiration date. It is on this argument that the index application is built: standard contract size, centralized clearing, and margin requirements.
Traditional exchanges are not standing still either. Cboe Global Markets launched mini binary options on the S&P 500 via Interactive Brokers this summer, but the settlement terms there are fixed — these are binary options, not perpetual contracts.
The fate of BitMEX — the pioneer of offshore crypto perps, which launched them back in 2014 — is also telling. The platform announced it would shut down by September 23. Analysts link this to the decline of the offshore perp era: traffic and volumes are gradually flowing to platforms under U.S. regulation.
The CFTC has not yet announced a timeline for reviewing Kalshi's application for the stock index. Thus, it is the decision on the CME lawsuit that will determine how soon American traders gain access to perpetual leveraged instruments on such an asset.
My take: The success of Kalshi's bitcoin perp ($5.5 billion in two weeks) vividly demonstrates the enormous unmet demand for flexible derivatives in the regulated space. If the CFTC sides with Kalshi, we will witness a tectonic shift: traditional exchanges will be forced to adapt or lose a significant share of the market to more innovative platforms.