The digital asset market has once again entered a zone of turbulence. The minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting released on Wednesday revealed a surprisingly hawkish debate within the Fed's leadership. Amid discussions of plans to reduce the number of meetings to six per year, initiated by Chairman Kevin Warsh, three committee members insisted on an immediate rate hike. For Bitcoin, this is a signal that is hard to ignore.
Recall that on July 29, the Fed kept its key rate in the range of 3.50–3.75%. However, behind this seemingly consensus decision (a vote of 9 to 3) lay a serious rift. Now that the full text of the minutes has become public, we can see how close the regulator came to tightening monetary policy.
Hawks Gain Ground
Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lori Logan — the three most consistent advocates of fighting inflation — voted for a 25-basis-point rate hike. Their position is not new, but it is telling: they believe the current inflation rate of 3.7% (as of June data) is unacceptably far from the 2% target.
Moreover, a significant portion of the other meeting participants made it clear: if inflationary pressures do not subside, a move to raise rates will become inevitable. This statement is not just routine rhetoric. It is backed by risk analysis, including the prolonged conflict in the Middle East, which could keep producer costs elevated, and the ambiguous impact of AI on prices: some see it as a pro-inflationary factor, while others view it as a long-term tool for reducing costs.
Fewer Meetings — More Volatility?
Warsh's idea of shifting to a six-meeting-per-year schedule is not just an administrative reform. It is a fundamental change to the rules of the game. Fewer official gatherings means the market will have fewer "checkpoints" to calibrate expectations. The Fed becomes less predictable, and each new step becomes more significant and, consequently, more disruptive to the price dynamics of risky assets.
For Bitcoin, which largely trades on rate expectations, this is an extremely alarming scenario. A silent and opaque central bank is the worst nightmare for traders accustomed to clear signals.
What This Means for the Market
Pressure is already being felt. Yields on long-term Treasury bonds have surged to highs not seen since 2007, and a 5% yield on government securities is luring capital away from the crypto sphere into "safe havens." This year, Bitcoin has consistently lagged behind gold, and recent events only reinforce this trend.
Immediately after the minutes were released, BTC was trading around $68,245, showing a daily gain of 5.3%. However, this bounce looks more like a technical correction rather than a trend reversal. The key test will be the September 15–16 meeting. It is then that it will become clear whether the hawks can push through a rate hike, or whether the committee will take a pause.
My view: The market is underestimating the likelihood of a September hike. If the Fed takes this step, we could see not just a correction, but a deep drawdown in Bitcoin to levels not seen since the start of the year. Investors should prepare for a scenario in which the "bearish" trend in the crypto market drags on until the end of the year, and any local rallies will merely be opportunities to exit positions.