Contrary to the dominant narrative about the revolutionary cheapness of cryptocurrencies, an empirical study by the Bank of Italy calls into question the effectiveness of stablecoins in the field of international transfers. Using a "mystery shopper" methodology, the regulator conducted a series of real transactions and arrived at unexpected conclusions that are important to consider when assessing the future of payment infrastructure.
Real Numbers: From 0.3% to 9%
As part of the experiment, 200 transfers in USDC (USD Coin) were sent across ten routes linking Italy with Argentina, Brazil, South Africa, the UAE, and Japan. Total costs per transaction ranged from 0.3% to 9% of the amount. This spread completely negates the UN target of reducing transfer costs below 3% by 2030. Notably, the blockchain transaction layer itself cost an average of just 0.4% — all the margin was consumed at the peripheral stages.
Bottlenecks — Outside the Blockchain
The analysis revealed that the main costs arise when converting fiat currencies, funding exchange accounts, and withdrawing funds in cash. These processes are still controlled by traditional banks and exchanges. For example, a transfer from the UAE to Italy was not available for bank funding, which forced researchers to use a credit card with a 3.8% fee, bringing the final cost to nearly 9%.
A comparison with the benchmark service Wise showed that stablecoins were cheaper on only three out of seven routes. This completely destroys the myth of the unconditional price superiority of crypto assets. Speed also did not become an advantage: where instant payment systems operate (Brazil's Pix, Europe's TIPS), funds arrive faster than through stablecoins, while in South Africa the transfer took one to two business days — just like regular banking.
Special attention in the report is paid to regulatory dynamics. Europe's MiCA is recognized as one of the most well-developed models, but its rigidity has side effects. As Japan's experience showed, stricter rules do not reduce demand but "drive" users into unregulated wallets, creating new risks for the financial system.
My expert conclusion: the Bank of Italy's study is a sobering signal for everyone who believes in the instant disintermediation of finance. Distributed ledger technology does not yet solve the "last mile" and liquidity problem. Until stablecoins are directly integrated with local payment systems and gain access to banking infrastructure without fees, their competitive advantage will remain ephemeral. The key battle for cross-border transfers will be fought not in code, but in the realm of regulation and partnerships with traditional players.