The minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting published on Wednesday shed light on serious disagreements within the Federal Reserve. Despite the regulator keeping the rate at 3.50–3.75% on July 29, the 9-to-3 vote was far from unanimous. Three influential committee members — Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie Logan — advocated for an immediate quarter-point rate hike, demonstrating a firm commitment to fighting inflation.
Their position is not isolated. Many other meeting participants made it clear that policy tightening is inevitable if inflationary pressures do not ease. At the same time, the June inflation reading of 3.7% remains significantly above the Fed's 2% target, making a "dovish" scenario unlikely in the near term. Committee members also noted risks associated with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which could keep producer costs elevated, as well as the ambiguous impact of artificial intelligence on prices.
Particular attention deserves Chairman Kevin Warsh's proposal to reduce the number of FOMC meetings to six per year. Formally, no decision has been made, and the 2026 schedule remains unchanged, but the very framing of the issue adds additional uncertainty. For the crypto market, this is a worrying signal: fewer meetings mean longer periods of uncertainty, which could amplify volatility around decision points.
The market has already reacted to the hawkish signals. In July, traders priced the probability of a rate hike at one-third, and for September they factored in an additional increase of 0.25 percentage points. Long-term Treasury yields surged to highs not seen since 2007, diverting capital away from risk assets, including bitcoin. Against the backdrop of the minutes' release, BTC traded at $68,245, showing a daily gain of 5.3%, yet fundamental pressure persists.
The key test will be the September 15–16 meeting. If the "hawks" strengthen their position, bitcoin could face a new round of correction. Under current conditions, high government bond yields will continue to compete with cryptocurrency for capital, and investors should prepare for increased sensitivity of BTC to every macroeconomic signal.
My view: The market is currently pricing in not so much current decisions as the future trajectory of Fed policy. Until inflation shows a sustained decline, any talk of easing is premature, and bitcoin will remain hostage to the macroeconomic environment.