The Federal Reserve is considering a radical reduction in the number of its meetings — to six times a year. This idea, voiced by Chairman Kevin Warsh, has already been reflected in the official minutes and signals a shift in the regulator's approach, which creates additional risks for the digital asset market, including bitcoin (BTC).
Against the backdrop of keeping the key rate at 3.50–3.75% following the July 29 meeting, the published minutes revealed serious internal disagreements. The 9-to-3 vote showed that consensus in the committee is far from unified. Three members — Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lori Logan, known for their hawkish stance — insisted on an immediate rate hike of 0.25 percentage points to combat inflation.
The remaining participants did not rule out tightening in the future if inflation does not begin to decline steadily. The regulator's target of 3.7% for June is still far from the 2% goal, leaving the "hawks" room to maneuver. Among additional risks, committee members noted the protracted conflict in the Middle East, which could keep producer costs elevated, as well as the exhaustion of the effect from previously imposed tariffs. The artificial intelligence boom also sparked discussion: some officials see it as a pro-inflationary factor, while others view it as a future tool for curbing prices.
Fewer meetings — more uncertainty
Warsh's initiative to move the Fed to a six-meeting schedule — roughly once every two months — looks like a logical continuation of his push to simplify communications. Fewer official occasions for statements means fewer opportunities for market speculation. However, for the crypto market, this is a double-edged sword: the rarer the decisions, the harder it is to forecast the rate trajectory, and each meeting risks resulting in sharper price spikes.
The market is already pricing in a 30% probability of a rate hike in the near term, and futures for September suggest an additional increase of 0.25 percentage points. The high yield on U.S. Treasuries, which reached 5% this year, continues to lure capital away from risk assets, and bitcoin, which has lagged gold since the start of the year, acutely feels this outflow. The hawkish rhetoric immediately impacted quotes: after the release of the minutes, BTC traded around $68,245, showing a 5.3% gain over the day, but this move looks more like a technical rebound rather than a trend reversal.
The key test for the market will be September 15–16. It is then that it will become clear whether the "hawks" will prevail or the regulator will maintain a pause. Until that moment, bitcoin will remain hostage to the macroeconomic agenda, and any careless signal from Washington could trigger a new wave of volatility.
My view: reducing the number of Fed meetings is not just a technical change, but a fundamental shift in the regulator's philosophy. The market is accustomed to constant hints and signals, and depriving it of this "support" will heighten nervousness. For bitcoin, which is still perceived as a high-risk asset, this means that periods of calm will be replaced by sharp movements, and traders should prepare for increased turbulence at the end of the year.