The Federal Reserve may shift to fewer meetings—just six times a year. This idea, voiced by Chair Kevin Warsh, was recorded in the latest minutes published on Wednesday. On the surface, it looks like a technical adjustment, but in essence, it is a signal of policy tightening that directly affects bitcoin (BTC).
As a reminder, on July 29 the Fed kept the rate at 3.50–3.75%. However, the 9-to-3 vote revealed a serious split within the committee. Now, with the full text of the minutes published, the details are visible: three members—Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lori Logan—insisted on an immediate hike of 0.25 percentage points. These are the most consistent "hawks," who see a high rate as the only way to curb inflation.
Inflation is not giving in, and the Fed acknowledges it
The remaining committee members preferred a wait-and-see stance but made it clear: if inflation does not begin to decline steadily, a rate hike is inevitable. The inflation benchmark in June stood at 3.7%—nearly double the 2% target level. Such a gap leaves no room for softness.
The risks discussed by participants extend far beyond interest rates. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could lock in high producer costs for a long time, and the effect of past tariff wars is nearly exhausted. Even the artificial intelligence boom sparks debate: some see it as a pro-inflationary factor, others as a future tool for lowering prices.
What this means for bitcoin
The main promise—"to achieve price stability"—was confirmed by nearly all participants. But the bond market has already reacted nervously: long-dated yields have surged to highs not seen since 2007. This is a classic signal for risky assets.
Warsh's idea is simple: six meetings a year would give the Fed more time to analyze data. But for the crypto market, this is a double risk. The price of bitcoin is extremely sensitive to rate expectations. A silent regulator stance is harder to predict, and infrequent decisions could trigger sharper volatility spikes. Market participants are already on edge—in July, traders estimated a 30% probability of a rate hike, and for September they were already pricing in a 0.25 percentage point increase.
High rates are already weighing on BTC: this year it has noticeably lagged gold, and a 5% yield on government bonds is pulling capital into safer instruments. After the minutes were published, bitcoin traded at $68,245, up 5.3% over the day, but this is a local rebound, not a trend reversal.
The key test is the September 15–16 meeting. That is when it will become clear whether the "hawks" can push through a rate hike or whether the Fed will take a pause. For bitcoin, this will be a moment of truth.
My view: reducing the number of meetings is not just a bureaucratic reform. It is an attempt by the Fed to lower the degree of speculative overhang, from which the crypto market gets extra volatility. But in the long term, this could make monetary policy less predictable, and therefore more dangerous for digital assets.