Grayscale Research's analytical department has presented a bold forecast: in the event that the regulation proposed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), titled Regulation Crypto Assets, or Reg Crypto for short, is adopted, the three leading altcoins — Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and BNB Chain — will benefit the most. This is not merely a speculative assumption, but a logical conclusion based on market structure and historical precedents.
The essence of the Reg Crypto initiative
The document, published by the SEC, for the first time in many years proposes a clear mechanism for startups wishing to legally sell new tokens to American investors. It involves two capital-raising schemes: the first allows raising up to $5 million over a four-year period without complex reporting, while the second allows up to $75 million per year, but with mandatory regular financial disclosures. A key element is the Investment Contract Safe Harbor mechanism, which determines when a token loses its status as a security. This very issue has long been a stumbling block in legal proceedings, including the high-profile SEC v. Ripple case.
Grayscale's logic is simple and elegant: if token sales become legal and transparent, this will attract new project founders and institutional investors to the blockchain. Activity and capital will concentrate in networks that already possess developed infrastructure and liquidity. According to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), during the ICO boom of 2017–2018, more than 1,500 projects raised a total of $12.9 billion. However, after regulators tightened their stance, most of them moved to offshore jurisdictions, effectively cutting off American investors from primary offerings. Reg Crypto aims to bring this flow back to the United States.
Market reaction and Grayscale's strategy
The market has already responded to the news with optimism: ETH surged more than 17.5% in a day, surpassing the $2,250 mark, SOL is trading near $89, and BNB has strengthened to around $629. Notably, Grayscale is not only verbally supporting the initiative but also confirming it through actions: this month, the company made BNB the largest position in its Smart Contract Fund with a 30.6% share. This is a clear signal of long-term confidence in the growth of the BNB Chain ecosystem under new regulatory conditions.
SEC Commissioner Mark Uyeda supported the project, noting that clear rules would reduce the temptation to launch projects outside the United States. It is expected that after publication in the Federal Register, a 60-day public comment period will begin, and final exemptions from trading rules may appear closer to the end of the year.
My view: This is a historic turning point. If Reg Crypto is adopted in its current form, we will witness a new wave of innovation that will return the United States to the status of a global crypto hub. However, investors should remember: regulatory clarity is a double-edged sword. Increased legality will lead to stronger competition and, likely, stricter requirements for project quality. ETH, SOL, and BNB are fundamental assets that will benefit from capital inflows in the long term, but short-term volatility amid the news is inevitable.