Grayscale Research's analytical department has presented a compelling thesis: under the new US regulatory paradigm for token sales, the main beneficiaries will be the three largest altcoins — Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and BNB Chain. This is not merely speculative conjecture but a logical conclusion drawn from the text of the proposed document.
The Essence of the SEC Initiative: Bringing ICOs Back into the Legal Framework
The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has finally presented the long-awaited draft rules titled Regulation Crypto Assets, or Reg Crypto for short. This document aims to fill the vacuum that has existed since the ICO boom of 2017, when startups could raise capital from American investors without any meaningful regulation. Now, a legal mechanism for initial token offerings is proposed, fundamentally changing the rules of the game.
Grayscale's logic is simple and elegant: if token sales become legal, this will bring both project founders and institutional investors back to the blockchain. The networks through which these offerings will flow will receive the greatest activity and, consequently, revenue. The demand is evident: according to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), more than 1,500 projects once raised approximately $12.9 billion through ICOs. The peak occurred in 2017-2018, after which the industry moved offshore, cutting itself off from the world's largest capital market.
"The SEC just proposed new rules for cryptocurrencies. Since the ICO boom of 2017, token fundraising in the US has taken place without any regulation. 'Reg Crypto' will change that," noted Grayscale representatives on social media.
The market has already reacted to this news with optimism. Ethereum is trading above $2,250, showing growth of more than 17.5% over the past day. Solana's price is holding near the $89 mark, while BNB remains stable around $629. Notably, Grayscale has confirmed its bet on BNB, making it the largest position in its own Smart Contract Fund with a 30.6% share — this happened just a few weeks ago.
The Mechanics of Reg Crypto: Two Paths and a "Safe Harbor"
The draft proposes two schemes for raising funds. The first allows a startup to raise up to $5 million over four years, but only once. The second is designed for larger projects: a limit of up to $75 million per year, but subject to regular financial reporting and full disclosure of information to the regulator.
A key element of the document is the mechanism by which a token can lose its status as a security. The issuer must complete all managerial tasks related to decentralizing governance. This regime has been named the Investment Contract Safe Harbor. It is precisely around this issue that the SEC's court dispute with Ripple over the XRP token stalled for years. The new rules officially codify the answer to this pressing question, removing enormous legal uncertainty for the entire industry.
SEC Commissioner Mark Uyeda supported the initiative, stating that clear rules will reduce the temptation to launch projects outside the US. The new framework partially replaces provisions of the CLARITY Act, whose consideration in the Senate has been postponed to September. Once the draft is published in the Federal Register, a 60-day period for public comments will begin. A separate exemption from trading rules for innovation is expected closer to the end of the year.
My analysis: This is undoubtedly a historic moment for the American crypto industry. However, investors should remember that time will pass between the publication of the draft and its final approval, during which significant amendments are possible. Nevertheless, the very signal of the SEC's readiness for constructive dialogue is a powerful catalyst for long-term market growth, and the positions of Ethereum, Solana, and BNB in this scenario look the most robust.