In the latest update to the 2026 investment strategy, I noticed an intriguing choice by Tom Lee of Fundstrat. Contrary to many expectations, he excluded Robinhood shares from his favorites, focusing instead on traditional market giants — JPMorgan and Arista Networks. This decision sparked a heated debate within the professional community, and I believe there is far deeper logic behind it than meets the eye.
Why the Bet on Robinhood Is Controversial
My analysis shows that Lee's viewpoint faced sharp criticism. Kevin Simpson, founder of Capital Wealth Planning, took a directly opposite stance, pointing to Robinhood's impressive second-quarter results. Indeed, the numbers speak for themselves: the company's annual revenue surged by 32%, reaching a record $1.31 billion, while diluted earnings per share rose by 48% — to $0.62. Net deposits also hit an all-time high, totaling $22 billion (+28% year-over-year).
Simpson rightly notes that Robinhood has long outgrown its image as a "pandemic-era stock." The company is actively diversifying: acquiring a licensed investment advisor and launching its own asset custody service are steps that strengthen its long-term position. Brenda Vingiello of Sand Hill Global Advisors, although she sold shares in June, also disagrees with Lee's pessimism, emphasizing that a recovery in the crypto market could once again push quotes higher.
A New Growth Vector: Infrastructure Over Speculation
The key point I highlight in this story is the transformation of Robinhood's crypto business. Revenue from cryptocurrency transactions fell by 38% year-over-year, to $100 million, which clearly worries analysts. However, the company is betting on infrastructure. The launch of Robinhood Chain — its own layer-2 blockchain based on Arbitrum — is a strategic move aimed at tokenizing stocks, decentralized lending, and 24/7 trading.
According to DefiLlama, the total value locked (TVL) in this network has already exceeded $550 million, with about 25% coming from tokenized stocks and real-world assets. This is not just a speculative bubble: more than half of the TVL is in stablecoins, including the dollar-pegged USDG token. On one hand, we see growth in meme coins after listings, but on the other — fundamental construction. The question is what will ultimately define the network's future: serious tokenization or crypto speculation.
My view: Lee is likely looking at the risks of overvaluation. With shares trading around $96 and a market cap of $86 billion, the market has already priced significant optimism into Robinhood's value. Meanwhile, the success of his other picks — Arista Networks, riding the wave of AI infrastructure demand, and JPMorgan, benefiting from the revival of IPOs — looks more predictable. Nevertheless, Robinhood's dynamics remain closely tied to sentiment in the digital asset market, and in the event of a new bull run, this factor could prove decisive. Investors should closely monitor developments rather than rely on one-size-fits-all recommendations.