On the eve of the large-scale introduction of the digital ruble, scheduled for September 1, a key player in the money circulation market — JSC Goznak — presented a restrained but highly telling forecast. Deputy General Director for Marketing and Strategy Georgy Kornilov directly stated that in the coming years, one should not expect a radical reduction in the volume of cash in circulation. This statement shatters hopes for an instant "digital revolution" and brings the discussion back to a pragmatic track.
Why cash will remain in the game
Goznak's logic is simple and at the same time profound. The digital ruble is not a replacement, but a complement to existing forms of money. It is designed to redistribute part of the settlements between cash and non-cash, but by no means to eliminate physical banknotes. Cash has undeniable advantages that the digital form is unlikely to replicate in the near term: complete anonymity of everyday spending and the ability to make payments without access to the internet or mobile apps. These factors create sustained demand for "live" money.
Moreover, the scale of current turnover makes a sharp shift unlikely. The volume of cash in circulation is measured in trillions of rubles, while real transactions with the digital ruble are so far measured only in tens of millions. Even with active connection of banks, overcoming this gap will require years, not months. The voluntary nature of using the new currency only reinforces the system's inertia.
Infrastructure and launch constraints
Nevertheless, preparations for the launch are in full swing. The Central Bank has set a limit on replenishing a digital wallet from a regular account at 300,000 rubles per month, although within the platform itself there will be no restrictions on spending funds. Large retail chains with annual revenue exceeding 120 million rubles will begin accepting digital rubles on a mandatory basis. Technically, all 12 systemically important banks, controlling more than 80% of the payment market, including Sberbank, VTB, Gazprombank, Alfa-Bank, and T-Bank, are ready for the launch.
However, even with such preparation, the transformation will be gradual. Businesses with high transaction loads will feel the benefit of reduced fees, and the state will gain a more precise tool for controlling budget flows. Competition among banks for clients is likely to intensify, which could lead to lower tariffs on traditional transfers.
My analysis: The market overestimates the speed of CBDC adoption. The true value of the digital ruble will be revealed not in replacing cash, but in optimizing government spending and creating a new payment infrastructure. Investors and businesses should prepare for a long-term transformation, not an instant upheaval.