Contrary to widespread expectations, the introduction of the digital ruble will not lead to a significant reduction in the volume of cash in circulation in the foreseeable future. This conclusion follows from an analysis of the position of a key player in the infrastructure market — JSC Goznak, whose marketing and strategy representative Georgy Kornilov gave a clear forecast regarding the future of cash circulation.
This statement came just a few weeks before the mass launch of the new form of the national currency, which the regulator and the banking sector have been preparing for since September 1. Expectations regarding the "death" of cash are clearly premature, and there are good reasons for this, rooted in the very nature of the new instrument.
Why the launch will not hit cash
The key argument is that the digital ruble does not replace, but complements, existing forms of money. One regular ruble is equal to one digital ruble, so we are talking about a redistribution of part of the settlements between forms, rather than the displacement of banknotes from circulation. Cash retains undeniable advantages that the digital form lacks: anonymity for everyday spending and the ability to make payments without access to the internet and apps.
The restraint of the forecast is also supported by the scale of the launch. The use of the digital ruble remains strictly voluntary, and real turnover is still measured in tens of millions of rubles against trillions in cash circulation. With such a colossal gap, a noticeable shift in the first years looks unlikely, even despite the mass connection of banks.
How the launch from September is structured
The Central Bank is introducing a limit on wallet top-ups of 300,000 rubles per month, and the restriction applies only to incoming transfers from a regular non-cash account. Within the platform itself, as explained by Alla Bakina, director of the Central Bank's national payment system department, funds can be managed freely. Payment in digital rubles will begin to be accepted by retail chains with annual revenue exceeding 120 million rubles.
Technically, all twelve systemically important banks, which account for more than 80% of the payment market, are ready for the start. The list includes Sberbank, VTB, Gazprombank, Alfa-Bank, T-Bank, and other major participants. Access for clients should also be provided by nine banks recognized as significant in the payment services market, and the list of organizations will be expanded.
Although the structure of cash will be preserved, certain sectors of the economy will change noticeably earlier. Businesses with a large number of transactions will save on fees, since operations with digital rubles are cheaper than standard transfers. The state will gain a more precise tool for controlling budget expenditures, and competition among banks for clients will push them to lower tariffs.
My view: The market is likely overestimating the speed of the digital ruble's penetration. The infrastructure is ready, but the behavioral inertia of the population and businesses is a factor that cannot be ignored. A real shift in the structure of money circulation will become noticeable no earlier than in 3-5 years, and only if clear economic incentives for transitioning to the new form of settlement emerge.