The European MiCA regulation, which came into full force on July 1, was expected to be a serious test for Tether. However, as fresh data from analytics platforms and academic research show, a global outflow from USDT has not occurred. Restrictions on regulated EU exchanges have changed the local trading structure but have failed to shake the position of the largest "stablecoin" on the global stage.
According to data from Artemis Analytics, changes in European regulation did not cause a significant reduction in USDT supply or a large-scale migration of liquidity between blockchains. Artemis representative Alex Wesley emphasizes: the data does not indicate a noticeable change in supply or demand that could be directly linked to MiCA. The regulation did not trigger a major movement of funds between platforms or networks.
These findings are confirmed by an independent study by economists Nicola Borri from LUISS University and Kirill Shakhnov from the University of Surrey. The researchers analyzed the consequences of USDT restrictions on European exchanges and reached an unambiguous conclusion: MiCA has noticeably altered the trading structure on individual regulated platforms but has had virtually no impact on the aggregate market shares and trading volumes of the largest stablecoins.
European local shift in favor of USDC
On exchanges oriented toward the regulated EU market, the effect proved predictable. After USDT restrictions, USDC's share rose by 0.82 standard deviations, and the ratio of Circle's stablecoin trading volumes to its competitor increased by 0.54 standard deviations. However, this redistribution turned out to be a local phenomenon—no comparable changes are observed at the global level. Aggregate market shares and trading volumes remain virtually unchanged.
USDT retains leadership
Market data confirm Tether's resilience. As of July 31, approximately 183.46 billion USDT were in circulation, with a market capitalization of roughly $183.27 billion. Tether's share of the total stablecoin supply at the end of the month stood at 61.2%. Notably, the entire market contracted by about 1.2% in July, so the slight decline in USDT supply did not occur in isolation but within the framework of an overall correction.
Significantly, even before the end of the transition period, USDT and USDC together accounted for about 83% of the global stablecoin market. Meanwhile, USDT activity continues to grow actively outside Europe. The number of daily BNB Chain users rose from approximately 318,000 in June 2024 to 1.56 million in July 2026. On Tron, the figure increased by 44% over the same period—to roughly 908,000 daily users. As Wesley rightly notes, on-chain data show no clear inflection point coinciding with MiCA.
USDT's continued leadership by market capitalization does not mean dominance across all metrics. In June, the adjusted stablecoin transfer volume reached a record $1.79 trillion, of which about $1.21 trillion (67%) was attributed to USDC, while USDT accounted for approximately $576 billion (32%).
A new reality: stablecoins as infrastructure
The resilience of dollar-denominated tokens outside the EU is explained by the expansion of use cases that go far beyond crypto trading. A striking example is Argentina, where the local platform Lemon processed $9.3 billion in transactions in 2025, 60% more than the previous year. The number of active users grew by 70% to nearly 1.8 million, and the volume of stablecoin transactions increased by 45%.
As Lemon representative Ignacio Jiménez notes, we are witnessing a shift from stablecoins as a store of value to stablecoins as financial infrastructure. Demand is increasingly driven by payments, cross-border transfers, and receiving funds from abroad.
Within Europe, the regulatory effect remains significant, but it is isolated. Tether has not obtained European authorization, and a number of regulated services have restricted access to the asset. However, the global picture is clear: MiCA has failed to change the balance of power in the global stablecoin market.
My comment: Regulatory pressure on USDT in Europe is more of a local episode than a global trend. The stablecoin market continues to develop according to its own rules, and attempts to limit Tether's dominance without creating a real alternative are unlikely to lead to fundamental changes. The key factor is not regulatory restrictions but real-world use cases, which are shifting toward emerging markets where digital dollars are becoming critically important financial infrastructure.