The first cryptocurrency has surpassed the psychologically important level of $70,000 for the first time since June 2. Over the past 24 hours, forced liquidations of short positions exceeded $3.38 billion, which served as a catalyst for rapid momentum.
The market received a powerful signal from Washington: the U.S. Treasury is doubling its buyback volume of long-term bonds—at least $4 billion per auction. An additional trigger was Donald Trump's statement that authorities are seriously considering the possibility of a large-scale purchase of bitcoin for state reserves. These news items triggered a cascade of short position closures, further amplifying the upward movement.
According to exchange statistics, positions of 193,767 traders were liquidated within 24 hours. Shorts accounted for $3.12 billion in losses versus a modest $277 million for longs. On the bitcoin market itself, positions worth $1.76 billion were closed. BTC is currently trading around $71,867, gaining approximately 11.5% over the day.
Spot demand returns
Analysts are recording a recovery in spot market demand even before the start of the price rally. The apparent demand indicator has risen from minus 206,000 BTC on July 23 to near-zero values over the past 30 days. The indicator has approached the positive zone for the first time since February 26.
Historically, bitcoin shows growth when spot demand transitions from negative to positive territory. The median return of BTC over 60 days after such a signal was 18.1%, with a positive outcome recorded in 78% of cases. This is a strong argument in favor of the continuation of the upward trend.
On-chain indicators warn
However, network data points to lingering risks. The cost basis of short-term holders stands at $68,500, and as long as the price remains above this level, the market looks stable. But the average market price is $75,800, creating a resistance zone.
The realized profit/loss ratio is currently 0.75—significantly below the threshold value of 2, at which a sustained trend reversal is confirmed. Until this indicator returns above 2, any growth should be viewed as a local rally rather than a change in market regime.
The current surge in bitcoin looks impressive, but on-chain data does not yet confirm its sustainability. To solidify the upward trend, it is necessary to overcome key resistance levels combined with further growth in spot demand. Until then, the latest momentum remains promising but unconfirmed.
My assessment: a rally driven by macroeconomic signals and a short squeeze is a classic scenario, but without a close above $75,000, it is premature to talk about a trend reversal. I recommend monitoring the dynamics of spot demand and the realized profit ratio—these will determine whether this surge evolves into a sustained recovery.