The recovery of the first cryptocurrency to the $75,000 mark is not so much the result of organic capital inflows as a consequence of a powerful cascade of forced liquidations of short positions on the Binance futures market. My analysis of CryptoQuant data shows that the Short Squeeze Value indicator reached 6.94 this week — the highest level in the past two years. For comparison: in November 2024, when we observed a similar surge, the figure stopped at 5.38.
This growth has a distinctly "mechanical" character. Buying pressure was created not by new long-term investors, but by the forced closing of shorts, which drove the upward movement with virtually no correction pauses. In essence, we are dealing with a classic pattern that is more often seen in bear market dynamics than at the start of a sustained bull trend.
The key risk here is obvious: as soon as the futures market "fuel" in the form of liquidations runs dry, and spot demand fails to fill that gap, the likelihood of a sharp and painful pullback increases significantly. Organic demand — that is what is now critically important for confirming the sustainability of current levels.
A bullish signal on the horizon?
However, there are also encouraging signals. The Bitcoin Bull Score metric has returned to the bullish zone for the first time since October 2025, surpassing the 60 mark. Notably, even in May, when bitcoin was storming $82,000, this indicator did not show similar strength. Now, six of the ten index components are in the "green" zone, including demand growth, stablecoin liquidity, and investors' realized price.
Historically, during sustained bullish phases, the Bull Score Index spends most of its time above 60. If the indicator can hold at this level and continue to rise, it could be a harbinger of a new bull cycle. Moreover, on-chain metrics are already showing the first signs of recovering spot demand, which may signal a gradual end to the bearish phase.
My conclusion: we are at a bifurcation point. The current rally is more of a technical bounce backed by derivatives than a fundamental reversal. To confirm the bullish scenario, we need to see sustained capital inflows into spot bitcoin ETFs and increased activity at the on-chain level. Until then, any upward movement should be viewed with caution, keeping in mind the high risk of volatility.