The current momentum of bitcoin, which has brought the price back to the $75,000 mark, is more mechanical in nature than organic. My calculations and analysis of flows on the Binance futures market indicate that we are witnessing a classic short squeeze — the forced closure of short positions, which has created cascading buying pressure.
The key Short Squeeze Value indicator on Binance has reached 6.94 — the highest level in the past two years. For comparison: in November 2024, when the market also experienced a similar squeeze, the metric stopped at 5.38. The current surge points to an unprecedented intensity of liquidations.
The mechanics of growth and hidden risks
It is important to understand: this growth is almost entirely driven by the futures market. Organic demand from spot buyers has not yet shown comparable activity. Such dynamics are typical of bearish phases, when the market moves due to position wipeouts rather than real capital inflows.
The main risk is that after the "fuel" for short squeezes is exhausted, in the absence of support from the spot market, we could see a sharp and painful pullback. This is not a question of "if," but a question of "when" — unless sustained organic demand emerges.
A glimmer of hope: Bull Score returns
However, there are also encouraging signals. The Bitcoin Bull Score metric has returned to the bullish zone for the first time since October 2025, rising above the 60 mark. Notably, even in May, when bitcoin was storming $82,000, this indicator failed to cross that threshold.
Currently, six out of ten key metrics are showing a "green" signal, including demand growth, stablecoin liquidity, and investors' realized price. If the Bull Score holds above 60 and continues to rise, it could be a harbinger of a new bullish cycle.
My conclusion: the market is at a bifurcation point. The mechanics of short squeezes have given us a temporary boost, but the sustainability of the move will be determined solely by the spot market's ability to take over the initiative. On-chain data does show the first signs of demand recovery, but to confirm a trend reversal, we need to see this dynamic hold for several weeks, not days.