Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has stated that the spot cryptocurrency market is approaching a phase of active growth. He bases his optimistic forecast on an analysis of historical cycles: previous downtrend periods lasted on average 370–380 days, and the current correction, in his estimation, has already practically exhausted itself.
The statement came amid important events at the White House, where Donald Trump gathered leading representatives of the crypto industry and regulators. Following this meeting, bitcoin (BTC) strengthened and surpassed the $78,000 mark, which became a significant signal for market participants.
Trading Activity: Decline and Reversal
It is worth noting that Armstrong's forecast came after a prolonged decline in trading volumes. In July, the total spot turnover on the 14 largest exchanges fell by 21.7% — to $429.0 billion from $547.9 billion the previous month. The decline affected all platforms: Binance retained its leadership with $196.5 billion (45.8% of the market), while Coinbase lost 26.4% of its turnover, and Bitfinex even showed a result of minus 59.7%.
The derivatives market also contracted by 11.1% — to $3.03 trillion. At the same time, the ratio of futures to spot trades rose from 6.21x to 7.06x, indicating active use of leverage by traders. Sentiment remained depressed in August: the fear and greed index dropped to 29 on the 13th, reflecting dominant fear.
Macroeconomic Momentum
The turning point came on August 19. The U.S. Treasury announced a doubling of bond buyback volumes — to $4 billion or more per operation, and the number of such operations per quarter will increase from two to four. The new schedule will take effect on September 9. Government bond yields fell sharply: ten-year notes lost 5.7 basis points (to 4.647%), and thirty-year notes lost 9 points (to 5.196%).
In those same days, Trump reported a possible major bitcoin purchase by the authorities. Since then, the BTC price has gained about 22%, settling near $78,700. The fear and greed index jumped to 71, signaling a shift in sentiment to "greed."
Armstrong: Time and Calendar Favor the Bulls
Armstrong ties his position to the length of the cycle. According to him, the spot market remained in a bearish phase for about a year, which aligns with historical parameters.
"We are almost at the point where people start saying — this cycle is probably ending. So, it's time for the next bull market in crypto," he noted.
He highlights two key factors supporting the forecast: the Senate vote on the CLARITY bill, scheduled for September 15, and the period from October to December, which he calls traditionally strong for bitcoin due to halving cycles.
"I think there is a high probability that we are on the threshold of a new bull market for spot cryptocurrency trading," Armstrong stated.
My view: the combination of macroeconomic easing, political support, and historical cyclicality does indeed create a favorable environment. However, one should not forget that the market is extremely sensitive to regulatory news, and any setback in the CLARITY timeline could quickly cool the bulls' enthusiasm. Investors should remain cautious, but the potential for growth is evident.