Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong stated that the spot cryptocurrency market is on the verge of a new phase of growth. He bases his optimistic forecast on an analysis of historical cycles: each previous period of bearish correction lasted approximately 370–380 days, and the current cycle, in his opinion, is close to completion.
Market on Pause: Volumes and Sentiment
The statement came amid a prolonged decline in trading activity. In July, the total spot volume on the 14 largest exchanges plummeted by 21.7% — from $547.9 billion to $429.0 billion. Bitfinex led the losses with a drop of 59.7%, while Coinbase lost 26.4%. Binance maintained its dominance with $196.5 billion, controlling 45.8% of the market.
Derivatives also contracted by 11.1%, to $3.03 trillion. Notably, the ratio of futures volume to spot rose from 6.21x to 7.06x — traders are increasingly using leverage, which often precedes a trend reversal. The Fear and Greed Index dropped to 29 points in early August, recording extreme pessimism, which historically serves as a contrarian signal.
Macroeconomic Catalyst
The turning point came on August 19. The U.S. Treasury announced a doubling of long-term bond buyback volumes — to $4 billion per operation, with the number of such operations per quarter increasing from two to four. The yield on ten-year Treasuries plunged by 5.7 basis points (to 4.647%), and thirty-year yields fell by 9 points (to 5.196%). This sharply increased the attractiveness of risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
An additional trigger was Donald Trump's statements about a possible major bitcoin purchase by authorities. Since then, BTC has gained about 22%, surpassing the $78,700 mark. The Fear and Greed Index soared to 71 points, confirming a shift in market sentiment.
Cyclicality and Growth Catalysts
Armstrong emphasizes that the spot market has been in a bearish phase for about a year, which aligns with historical parameters. "We are almost at the point where people start saying: maybe this cycle is ending. That means it's time for the next bull market in crypto," he noted.
He cites the Senate vote on the CLARITY bill, scheduled for September 15, as key drivers, as well as the traditionally strong period for bitcoin from October to December, reinforced by halving cycles. "With high probability, we are on the threshold of a new bull market for spot cryptocurrency trading," the Coinbase head summarized.
My view: the combination of macroeconomic easing, institutional interest, and historical cyclicality indeed forms a favorable environment. However, one should not forget that the cryptocurrency market is extremely sensitive to regulatory surprises, and any delays in passing CLARITY could adjust the optimistic scenario.