Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase, stated that the spot cryptocurrency market is approaching a new phase of growth. He bases his optimistic forecast on historical cyclicality: previous downtrend periods lasted approximately 370–380 days, and the current bearish stretch has already nearly exhausted itself.
This statement came amid significant events in the United States. After a meeting at the White House, where Donald Trump invited key players from the crypto industry and regulators, bitcoin (BTC) demonstrated confident growth, surpassing the $78,000 mark. The market clearly received a powerful signal for a reversal.
Declining volumes and fear: harbingers of a reversal
My analysis confirms that the preceding weeks were extremely difficult. Spot trading volumes on the 14 largest exchanges collapsed by 21.7% in July — to $429.0 billion from $547.9 billion the previous month. The decline affected every platform without exception. Binance retained its leadership with $196.5 billion (45.8% of the market), but Coinbase lost 26.4%, and Bitfinex plunged by as much as 59.7%. The derivatives market contracted by 11.1% to $3.03 trillion, while the ratio of futures to spot trades rose from 6.21x to 7.06x — traders are increasingly using leverage, indicating position accumulation ahead of a move.
The emotional backdrop also hit bottom: the fear and greed index dropped to 29 points on August 13, clearly signaling panic and capitulation. However, it is precisely such extreme values that historically precede a trend reversal.
Macroeconomic trigger: the Fed and Trump
The turning point came on August 19. The U.S. Treasury doubled its bond buyback volume — to $4 billion per operation, and the number of operations per quarter will increase from two to four. The new schedule will take effect on September 9. This immediately crushed yields: ten-year notes lost 5.7 basis points (to 4.647%), and thirty-year notes lost 9 points (to 5.196%). Simultaneously, Donald Trump announced plans by authorities for a large-scale bitcoin purchase. Since then, the price has gained about 22% and held near $78,700 on Saturday, while the fear and greed index soared to 71.
Cyclicality and halving as the foundation of the bullish scenario
Armstrong builds his forecast on two key factors. First, the Senate vote on the CLARITY bill, scheduled for September 15, could bring long-awaited regulatory clarity. Second, the period from October to December is traditionally strong for bitcoin thanks to halving cycles. "We are almost at the point where people start saying: this cycle is probably ending. So, it's time for the next bull market in crypto," he noted. "I think with high probability we are on the threshold of a new bull market for spot cryptocurrency trading."
My comment: Armstrong is right about cyclicality, but it is worth remembering that past patterns do not guarantee future results. The key driver right now is U.S. macroeconomic policy, which is creating an extremely favorable environment for risk assets. If CLARITY is passed, we could indeed see a sustained upward trend through the end of the year, but volatility will remain high, and investors should be prepared for sharp corrections along the way up.