Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has made a bold statement that will undoubtedly inspire many market participants. In his view, the spot cryptocurrency market is completing its bearish phase and preparing for a new stage of growth. He bases his optimistic forecast on an analysis of historical cycles: each previous downturn lasted approximately 370–380 days, and the current correction, by his calculations, has almost exhausted its time limit.
Interestingly, this statement came amid a noticeable revival in the market. Following a meeting between leading crypto entrepreneurs and regulators at the White House, to which Donald Trump invited them, bitcoin (BTC) surged sharply and broke through the psychologically important level of $78,000. Armstrong himself was one of the participants in that meeting, and his words about an imminent trend reversal carry particular weight against this backdrop.
Analysis of market activity: has the bottom been reached?
My analysis of the data confirms that the market has indeed been going through a difficult period. In July, spot trading volume on the 14 largest exchanges fell by 21.7% — from $547.9 billion to $429.0 billion. The decline affected all platforms: Binance, which retained its leadership with $196.5 billion (a 45.8% share), lost part of its turnover, while Coinbase dropped by 26.4%. Only Bitfinex fared worse, with volume plunging by 59.7%.
The derivatives market also contracted, shrinking by 11.1% to $3.03 trillion. Notably, the ratio of futures to spot trades rose from 6.21x to 7.06x, indicating increased use of leverage. In early August, sentiment was at rock bottom: the fear and greed index fell to 29 points, clearly signaling the dominance of fear and uncertainty.
Macroeconomic trigger: the bond market reversed the trend
The turning point came on August 19. The U.S. Treasury announced it would double the volume of bond buybacks — to $4 billion or more per operation — and the number of such operations per quarter would increase from two to four. The new schedule will take effect on September 9. This immediately impacted yields: ten-year government bonds lost 5.7 basis points, falling to 4.647%, while thirty-year bonds dropped 9 points to 5.196%.
In parallel, Donald Trump reported that authorities are discussing the possibility of a large-scale bitcoin purchase. Since then, the BTC price has gained about 22% and held near the $78,700 mark on Saturday. The fear and greed index soared to 71 points, confirming a dramatic shift in sentiment.
Bullish forecast: time and calendar favor growth
Armstrong ties his position to the length of the cycle. He notes that spot cryptocurrency trading has remained in a bearish phase for about a year, while historically such periods lasted roughly 370–380 days. "We are almost at the point where people start saying — this cycle is probably ending. So, it's time for the next bull market in crypto," he emphasizes.
The Coinbase chief highlights two key factors supporting his forecast. First, the Senate vote on the CLARITY bill is scheduled for September 15. Second, the period from October to December is traditionally strong for bitcoin due to halving cycles (reductions in miner rewards). "I think there is a high probability that we are on the verge of a new bull market for spot cryptocurrency trading," he concludes.
My comment: Armstrong offers a compelling macroeconomic and cyclical argument. The combination of monetary policy easing, expected regulatory progress, and historical patterns does indeed create favorable ground for a reversal. However, it is worth remembering that the cryptocurrency market is extremely sensitive to external shocks, and any negative macroeconomic surprise could delay the realization of this bullish scenario. Investors should remain cautious and diversify risks, even if fundamental signals look encouraging.